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Macroeconomic consequences of the demographic and educational transition in Poland

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  • Aleksandra Kolasa

    (University of Warsaw)

Abstract

Soon after the start of the transition to market economy in the early 1990s, Poland has experienced both a dramatic decline in the fertility rate and an increase in the share of students among young high-school graduates. These two processes significantly changed the age structure of the population and average income characteristics of households. Using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and uninsured income shocks I try to assess the impact of these demographic and educational changes on the Polish economic performance and inequalities. I find that in the long term the positive effects of educational transition on output per capita more than offset the negative impact of lower fertility, but the outcome strongly depends on the adjustments in the structure of labor demand. I also show that the educational transition increases income and consumption inequalities, while the demographic transition decreases inequality in assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra Kolasa, 2018. "Macroeconomic consequences of the demographic and educational transition in Poland," NBP Working Papers 281, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:281
    Note: This paper benefited from comments by Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Marcin Kolasa, Anna Nicińska, Małgorzata Rószkiewicz, Michał Rubaszek, Małgorzata Skibińska, Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, an anonymous referee and participants of the 5th NBP Summer Workshop in Warsaw.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population aging; educational transition; inequalities; models with heterogeneous agents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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