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Unprivatizing the Pension System: The Case of Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Hagemejer

    () (National Bank of Poland; Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

  • Krzysztof Makarski

    () (National Bank of Poland; Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Joanna Tyrowicz

    () (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland)

Abstract

In many countries the fiscal tension associated with the global financial crisis brings about the discussion about unprivatizing the social security system. This paper employs an OLG model to assess ex ante the effects of such changes to the pension reform in Poland from 1999 as implemented in 2011 and proposed in 2013. We simulate the behavior of the economy without the implemented/proposed changes and compare it to a status quo defined by the reform from 1999. We find that the changes implemented in 2011 and all of the proposed reform scenarios from 2013 are detrimental to welfare. The effects on capital and output are small and depend on the selected fiscal closure. Implied effective replacement rates are lower. These findings are robust to time inconsistency. The shortsightedness of the governments imposes welfare costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hagemejer & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2013. "Unprivatizing the Pension System: The Case of Poland," Working Papers 2013-26, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2013-26
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    File URL: http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/inf/wyd/WP/WNE_WP111.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Borella, Margherita & Moscarola, Flavia Coda, 2010. "Microsimulation of pension reforms: behavioural versus nonbehavioural approach," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 583-607, October.
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    4. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2007. "Does Social Security Privatization Produce Efficiency Gains?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(4), pages 1677-1719.
    5. Blake, David, 2000. "Does It Matter What Type of Pension Scheme You Have?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages 46-81, February.
    6. Chlon, Agnieszka & Gora, Marek & Rutkowski, Michal, 1999. "Shaping pension reform in Poland : security through diversity," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20852, The World Bank.
    7. Marek Góra, 2013. "Political economy of pension reforms: selected general issues and the Polish pension reform case," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, December.
    8. Jan Hagemejer & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2013. "Efficiency of the pension reform: the welfare effects of various fiscal closures," Working Papers 2013-23, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    9. Hans Fehr, 2009. "Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 359-416, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandra Kolasa, 2017. "Macroeconomic consequences of the demographic and educational transition in Poland," Working Papers 2017-30, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Manor Moshe & Ratajczak Joanna, 2020. "Shift to private pension system: The case of Poland and Israel," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 82-102, March.
    3. Krzysztof Kompa & Dorota Witkowska, 2014. "Pension Funds in Poland: Efficiency Analysis for Years 1999-2013," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 105-124.
    4. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2015. "Political (In)Stability of Social Security Reform," Working Papers 2015-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    5. Roel Beetsma & Oliwia Komada & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2020. "The political (in)stability of funded pension systems," Working Paper series 20-07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Kompa, Krzysztof & Witkowska, Dorota, 2015. "Pension System in Poland: Performance of Pension Funds/El Sistema de Pensiones en Polonia: Rendimiento de los Fondos de Pensiones," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 965-984, Septiembr.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    OLG; PAYG; pension system reform; time inconsistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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