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Microsimulation of Pension Reforms: Behavioural versus Nonbehavioural Approach

Author

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  • Margherita Borella

    () (University of Turin and CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin)

  • Flavia Coda Moscarola

    () (CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin)

Abstract

We analyse the impact of various pension regimes, as shaped by recent Italian reforms, on retirement age, adequacy issues, and redistribution. We add to the literature on microsimulation by accounting for individuals’ reactions to financial incentives when deciding to retire. We find that shifting from a generous defined benefit (DB) system to an actuarially fair notional defined contribution (NDC) system induces individuals, particularly men, to postpone retirement. Voluntary postponement of retirement and, above all, participation in the second pillar would grant a comprehensive replacement rate (first plus second pillars) comparable to that obtained with the first pillar alone in the pre-reform DB regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Borella & Flavia Coda Moscarola, 2009. "Microsimulation of Pension Reforms: Behavioural versus Nonbehavioural Approach," CeRP Working Papers 86, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  • Handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:86
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    Cited by:

    1. Flavia Coda Moscarola & Elsa Fornero & Steinar Strøm, 2016. "Absenteeism, childcare and the effectiveness of pension reforms," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Emanuele Ciani & Marcello Morciano, 2011. "Estimation and Simulation of Earnings in IT-SILC," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0090, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    3. Peri, Giovanni & Romiti, Agnese & Rossi, Mariacristina, 2015. "Immigrants, domestic labor and women's retirement decisions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-34.
    4. Jan Hagemejer & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2015. "Unprivatizing the pension system: the case of Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 833-852, February.
    5. Flavia Coda Moscarola & Margherita Borella, 2015. "The 2011 Pension Reform in Italy and its Effects on Current and Future Retirees," CeRP Working Papers 151, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    6. Figari, Francesco & Paulus, Alari & Sutherland, Holly, 2014. "Microsimulation and policy analysis," ISER Working Paper Series 2014-23, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Peri, Giovanni & Romiti, Agnese & Rossi, Mariacristina, 2013. "Immigrants, Household Production and Women's Retirement," IZA Discussion Papers 7549, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Microsimulation; public pensions; retirement;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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