What Explains Output Volatility? Evidence from the G3
This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of the determinants of output volatility for the G3 during the period 1974-2009. We estimate a multivariate GARCH model and include the covariances of those determinants, which have been ignored in the prior relevant literature. Our findings indicate that nominal variability, namely variability in the interest rate and inflation, explains output volatility. Fiscal policy variations, captured by the volatility of government spending, are found to be important as well. Fluctuations in the international markets seem to affect significantly the volatility of output in almost all countries under examination. Finally, any real shock originated from the world’s most advanced country, the U.S., transcends to the other two with high significance.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- WenSho Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2007.
"The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility,"
2007-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Wen-Shwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "The Great Moderation and The Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 819-838, January.
- Driskill, Robert & McCafferty, Stephen, 1987. "Exchange-rate determination: An equilibrium approach with imperfect capital substitutability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 241-261, November.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002.
"Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1991.
"Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
- Laurent, Sebastien & Peters, Jean-Philippe, 2002. " G@RCH 2.2: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 447-85, July.
- Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
- Robert J. Barro, 1988.
"Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Barro, R.J., 1988. "Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, .
"Multivariate GARCH models: a survey,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
-1847, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2009.
"Exchange Rate Volatility and Output Volatility: A Theoretical Approach,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 552-569, 08.
- Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Output Volatility: a Theoretical Approach," Discussion Paper Series 2008_16, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2008.
- Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032473, June.
- Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2006.
"The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 101-117, January.
- Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2004. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Rules in the US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 4372, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Imbs, Jean, 2007.
"Growth and volatility,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
- Driskill, Robert & McCafferty, Stephen, 1980. "Exchange-Rate Variability, Real and Monetary Shocks, and the Degree of Capital Mobility under Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 577-86, November.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
- Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1994.
"Was Prometheus unbound by chance? Risk, diversification and growth,"
Economics Working Papers
98, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-51, August.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1996. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kyrtsou, Catherine, 2008. "Re-examining the sources of heteroskedasticity: The paradigm of noisy chaotic models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(27), pages 6785-6789.
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- Harvey, A C, 1976. "Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(3), pages 461-65, May.
- Karras, Georgios, 2006. "Trade Openness, Economic Size, and Macroeconomic Volatility: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 254-272.
- Kevin B. Grier & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2007. "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 965-979, 06.
- James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
- Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1980. "Inflation Uncertainty and the Phillips Curve: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1022-27, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2010_09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Theodore Panagiotidis)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.