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GDP Growth and the Interdependency of Volatility Spillovers

  • Karunanayake, Indika
  • Valadkhani, Abbas
  • O’Brien, Martin

This paper examines the dynamics of cross-country GDP volatility transmission and their conditional correlations. We use quarterly data (1961-2008) for Australia, Canada, the UK and the US to construct and estimate a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model. According to the results from the mean growth equations, we identified significant cross-country GDP growth spillover among these countries. Furthermore, the growth volatility between the US and Canada indicates the highest conditional correlation. As expected, we also found that the shock influences are mainly exerted by the larger economies onto the smaller economies.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50398/1/MPRA_paper_50398.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50398.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Publication status: Published in Australasian Accounting Business and Finance Journal 1.6(0212): pp. 83-96
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50398
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Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, Worldwide," NBER Working Papers 14269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
  12. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  13. de Goeij, P. C. & Marquering, W., 2004. "Modeling the conditional covariance between stock and bond returns : A multivariate GARCH approach," Other publications TiSEM 94fe5ada-715a-4339-b94c-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  14. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  15. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  17. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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