IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sce/scecf1/123.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

G@RCH 2.0: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models

Author

Listed:
  • S»bastien Laurent and Jean-Philippe Peters

Abstract

This paper discusses and documents G@RCH 2.0, an Ox package dedicated to the estimation and forecasting of various univariate ARCH-type models including the GARCH, EGARCH, GJR, APARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH, FIEGARCH and FIAPARCH specifications of the conditional variance and an AR(FI)MA specification of the conditional mean. These models can be estimated by approximate (quasi-) maximum likelihood under four assumptions: normal, Student-t, GED, or skewed Student errors. Explanatory variables can enter both the conditional-mean and the conditional-variance equations. One-step-ahead (density) forecasts of both the conditional mean and variance are available as well as some misspecification tests and several graphical techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • S»bastien Laurent and Jean-Philippe Peters, 2001. "G@RCH 2.0: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 123, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eaa.egss.ulg.ac.be/rogp/peters/papers.html
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brock, William A & LeBaron, Blake D, 1996. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 94-110, February.
    2. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, "undated". "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    3. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
    4. Arthur, W.B. & Holland, J.H. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R. & Tayler, P., 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9625, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    5. Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "Expectation Driven Price Volatility in an Experimental Cobweb Economy," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H., 2000. "A Nonlinear Structural Model for Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    7. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
    8. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
    9. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    10. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Stability of Competitive Equilibria with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Learning," Research Paper Series 37, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    12. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2001. "Growth Cycles and Market Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 13-39, January.
    13. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
    14. Kirman Alan & Teyssière Gilles, 2002. "Microeconomic Models for Long Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, January.
    15. Baak, Saang Joon, 1999. "Tests for bounded rationality with a linear dynamic model distorted by heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1517-1543, September.
    16. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
    17. Brock, W.A., 1996. "Asset Price Behavior in Complex Environments," Working papers 9606, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    18. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1997. "Models of Compelxity in Economics and Finance," Working papers 9706, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    19. William A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
    20. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    21. Brock,W.A. & Hommes,C.H., 1998. "Rational animal spirits," Working papers 23, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    22. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    23. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
    24. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September.
    25. de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Information Dynamics In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 139-169, June.
    26. de Vilder, Robin, 1996. "Complicated Endogenous Business Cycles under Gross Substitutability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 416-442, November.
    27. Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter.
    28. Camerer, Colin, 1989. " Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
    29. repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:2:p:139-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
    31. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    32. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000. "Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    33. Sobel, Joel, 2000. "Economists' Models of Learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 241-261, October.
    34. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, "undated". "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
    35. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-168, February.
    36. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. C. R. McKenzie & Sumiko Takaoka, 2007. "EViews 5.1," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1145-1152.
    2. repec:spr:jecfin:v:41:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-017-9386-x is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Silja Kinnebrock & Neil Shephard, 2008. "Measuring downside risk — realised semivariance," CREATES Research Papers 2008-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Atilla Çifter & Alper Özün, 2007. "The Predictive Performance of Asymmetric Normal Mixture GARCH in Risk Management: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 1(1), pages 7-34.
    5. Karanasos, M. & Sekioua, S.H. & Zeng, N., 2006. "On the order of integration of monthly US ex-ante and ex-post real interest rates: New evidence from over a century of data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-169, February.
    6. Helen Higgs & Andrew C. Worthington, 2005. "Systematic Features of High-Frequency Volatility in Australian Electricity Markets: Intraday Patterns, Information Arrival and Calendar Effects," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-42.
    7. Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe & Param Silvapulle, 2004. "Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Some Evidence from Japan," International Finance 0406006, EconWPA.
    8. Anastassios A. Drakos & Georgios P. Kouretas & Leonidas P. Zarangas, 2010. "Forecasting financial volatility of the Athens stock exchange daily returns: an application of the asymmetric normal mixture GARCH model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 331-350.
    9. Eskandar A. Tooma, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Egyptian Stock Market Volatility Before and After Price Limits," Working Papers 0310, Economic Research Forum, revised 04 Mar 2003.
    10. Wolfgang Härdle & Julius Mungo, 2008. "Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall when there is long range dependence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    11. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
    12. Wang, Yuanfang & Roberts, Matthew C., 2005. "Realized Volatility in the Agricultural Futures Market," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19211, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    (Density-) Forecasts; GARCH; Asymmetry; Long Memory; Ox; Econometric Software; Financial Time Series;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sceeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.