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Do Foreigners Replace Native Immigrants? Evidence from a Panel Cointegration Analysis

  • Brücker, Herbert


    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)

  • Fachin, Stefano


    (Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Venturini, Alessandra


    (University of Turin)

This paper examines the impact of the immigration of foreigners on domestic labour mobility. Since David Card's seminal study on the regional labour market impact of the Mariel Boatlift it is controversial whether domestic labour mobility equilibrates economic conditions across cities and regions. However, there is little or no evidence that natives leave destinations where migrants tend to cluster. In this paper we reconcile the existing evidence by taking another route. We analyze whether the immigration of foreigners replaces domestic mobility from poor to rich regions. We focus on Italy, which is characterized by market differences in earnings between the North and the South. Based on a panel cointegration approach we exploit the variance of international and internal migration over time for identifying potential displacement effects. The main finding is that, conditional on unemployment and wage differentials, the share of foreign workers in the labour force of the destination regions discourages internal labour mobility significantly. As a consequence, spatial correlation studies which use the variance of the foreigner share across region for identifying the wage and employment effects of immigration, tend to understate the actual immigration impact.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4438.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Economic Modelling, 2010, 2011, 28 (3), 1078 - 1089
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4438
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  1. Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "Where Do U.S. Immigrants Come From, and Why?," NBER Working Papers 8998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
  3. Groen, Jan J J & Kleibergen, Frank, 2003. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error-Correction Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 295-318, April.
  4. David Card, 2004. "Is the New Immigration Really So Bad?," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0402, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  5. Giovanni Peri & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2005. "Rethinking the Gains from Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 58, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  6. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2008. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in dependent cointegrated panels," MPRA Paper 12053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2004. "Spatial Heterogeneity and the Wage Curve revisited," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-054/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Moon, Hyungsik R., 1999. "A note on fully-modified estimation of seemingly unrelated regressions models with integrated regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 25-31, October.
  9. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Andrea Gavosto & Alessandra Venturini & Claudia Villosio, 1999. "Do Immigrants Compete with Natives?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 13(3), pages 603-621, 09.
  11. Jennifer Hunt, 1992. "The Impact of the 1962 Repatriates from Algeria on the French Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 45(3), pages 556-572, April.
  12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  13. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  14. Stefano Fachin, 2007. "Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
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