Matching or Clashing: Exploring Scientists’ Exit from Academia Through Intentions and Job Offers

Academically trained scientists play a pivotal role in innovation by advancing the knowledge frontier across industries, prompting firms to increasingly engage in proactive recruitment. This paper investigates academic scientists’ career transitions into industry by jointly examining two often separately studied mechanisms: scientists’ intentions to leave academia (the supply side) and firms’ recruitment efforts (the demand side). We conceptualize intersectoral mobility as the outcome of how these two mechanisms align or diverge. Using survey data from 469 scientists in Germany linked to follow-up information on their actual career outcomes more than three years later, our results show that exit intentions are the predominant predictor of subsequent transitions into industry jobs. Job offers reinforce the impact of existing exit intentions. By contrast, scientists who receive a job offer but do not intend to leave academia are the least likely to transition to private-sector employment. Implications for firms’ active recruiting strategies and for universities seeking to retain scientific staff are discussed.