IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/rbnkwp/0416.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Curious Incidence of Monetary Policy Across the Income Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Broer, Tobias

    (Paris School of Economics, IIES, Stockholm University, and CEPR)

  • Kramer, John

    (IIES, Stockholm University)

  • Mitman, Kurt

    (IIES, Stockholm University, CEPR and IZA)

Abstract

We use high-frequency administrative data from Germany to study the effects of monetary policy on income and employment across the earnings distribution. Earnings growth at the bottom of the distribution is substantially more elastic to policy shocks. This unequal incidence is driven by differences in the response of employment risk across the distribution: job loss is more countercyclical for lower-earnings households. Viewed through the lens of a standard incomplete-markets model, the heterogeneous incidence substantially amplifies the equilibrium response of aggregate consumption to shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Broer, Tobias & Kramer, John & Mitman, Kurt, 2022. "The Curious Incidence of Monetary Policy Across the Income Distribution," Working Paper Series 416, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/working-papers/2022/no.-416-the-curious-incidence-of-monetary-policy-across-the-income-distribution.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hoffmann, Eran B. & Malacrino, Davide, 2019. "Employment time and the cyclicality of earnings growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    3. Ganzer, Andreas & Schmucker, Alexandra & Vom Berge, Philipp & Wurdack, Anja, 2017. "Sample of integrated labour market biographies - regional file 1975-2014 : (SIAB-R 7514)," FDZ Datenreport. Documentation on Labour Market Data 201701_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 697-743, March.
    5. Iván Werning, 2015. "Incomplete Markets and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 21448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2020. "Understanding HANK: Insights From a PRANK," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1113-1158, May.
    7. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    8. repec:iab:iabfda:201701(en is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    10. Elin Halvorsen & Hans A Holter & Serdar Ozkan & Kjetil Storesletten, 2024. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 617-668.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    12. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    13. Krusell, Per & Mukoyama, Toshihiko & Smith Jr., Anthony A., 2011. "Asset prices in a Huggett economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 812-844, May.
    14. Edouard Challe, 2020. "Uninsured Unemployment Risk and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Zero-Liquidity Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 241-283, April.
    15. Fatih Guvenen & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Jae Song & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 398-403, May.
    16. Jonas Kolsrud & Camille Landais & Peter Nilsson & Johannes Spinnewijn, 2018. "The Optimal Timing of Unemployment Benefits: Theory and Evidence from Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 985-1033, April.
    17. Mr. John Silvia & Mr. Lorenz Kueng & Mr. Olivier Coibion & Mr. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S," IMF Working Papers 2012/199, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Morten O Ravn & Vincent Sterk, 2021. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations with HANK & SAM: an Analytical Approach," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1162-1202.
    19. Kuester, Keith & Gornemann, Nils & Nakajima, Makoto, 2016. "Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11233, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Bilbiie, Florin, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 12601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Ravn, Morten O. & Sterk, Vincent, 2017. "Job uncertainty and deep recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 125-141.
    22. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
    23. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Knoef, Marike & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Van Ooijen, Raun, 2021. "Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    24. Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Robert Völter, 2006. "Imputation Rules to Improve the Education Variable in the IAB Employment Subsample," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 126(3), pages 405-436.
    25. Sebastian Graves, 2020. "Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1298, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Christina Patterson, 2019. "The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions," 2019 Meeting Papers 95, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    28. Martin Blomhoff Holm & Pascal Paul & Andreas Tischbirek, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy under the Microscope," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(10), pages 2861-2904.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bertrand Garbinti & Pierre Lamarche & Frédérique Savignac, 2024. "Wealth Heterogeneity and the Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Wealth," Working papers 962, Banque de France.
    2. Gomes, Sandra & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2023. "A single monetary policy for heterogeneous labour markets: the case of the euro area," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Paul Hubert & Frédérique Savignac, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Labor Income Inequality: the Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins," Working papers 913, Banque de France.
    4. Ampudia, Miguel & Ehrmann, Michael & Strasser, Georg, 2023. "The effect of monetary policy on inflation heterogeneity along the income distribution," Working Paper Series 2858, European Central Bank.
    5. Uroš Herman & Matija Lozej, 2023. "Who Gets Jobs Matters: Monetary Policy and the Labour Market in HANK and SAM," Working Papers halshs-04328572, HAL.
    6. Cantore, Cristiano & Ferroni, Filippo & Mumtaz, Hroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2022. "A tail of labour supply and a tale of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 989, Bank of England.
    7. Groiss, Martin, 2024. "Equalizing Monetary Policy - the Earnings Heterogeneity Channel in Action," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302346, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    2. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2020. "The New Keynesian cross," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 90-108.
    3. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Känzig, Diego R. & Surico, Paolo, 2022. "Capital and income inequality: An aggregate-demand complementarity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 154-169.
    4. Oliver Pfäuti & Fabian Seyrich, 2022. "A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1995, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Carreño Bustos, José Gabo, 2023. "Flexible Contracts as Business Cycle Stabilizers," Discussion Paper 2023-007, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2021. "Optimal Automatic Stabilizers [Consumption versus Expenditure]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(5), pages 2375-2406.
    7. Bilbiie, F. & Primiceri, G. E. & Tambalotti, A., 2022. "Inequality and Business Cycles," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2234, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Dengler, Thomas & Gehrke, Britta, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Precautionary Savings," IZA Discussion Papers 14329, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Household balance sheet channels of monetary policy: A back of the envelope calculation for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Sushant Acharya & Edouard Challe & Keshav Dogra, 2023. "Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(7), pages 1741-1782, July.
    11. Herman, Uroš & Lozej, Matija, 2023. "Who gets jobs matters: monetary policy and the labour market in HANK and SAM," Working Paper Series 2850, European Central Bank.
    12. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2020. "Understanding HANK: Insights From a PRANK," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1113-1158, May.
    13. Felipe Alves & Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "A Further Look at the Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in HANK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 521-559, December.
    14. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    15. Paul Hubert & Frédérique Savignac, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Labor Income Inequality: the Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins," Working Papers hal-04524715, HAL.
    16. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
    17. Daeha Cho, 2023. "Unemployment risk, MPC heterogeneity, and business cycles," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 717-751, May.
    18. Luzie Thiel, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Inequality: A Two-way Relation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202304, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    19. Peydró, José-Luis & Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Panetti, Ettore & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registe," CEPR Discussion Papers 16549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. François Le Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2022. "Managing Inequality Over Business Cycles: Optimal Policies With Heterogeneous Agents And Aggregate Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 511-540, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; Monetary Policy; Heterogeneous agents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lena Löfgren (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbgovse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.