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Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?

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  • Sebastian Graves

Abstract

In this paper, I show that the decline in consumption during unemployment depends on both liquid and illiquid wealth; that unemployment predicts illiquid asset withdrawal, primarily when households have few liquid assets; and that increased idiosyncratic unemployment risk leads to a rise in saving overall, but also to a decline in investment in illiquid assets. Motivated by these new findings, I embed endogenous unemployment risk in a two-asset, heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. The model is consistent with the new evidence and suggests that aggregate shocks are amplified by a flight-to-liquidity when unemployment risk rises, particularly when monetary policy is constrained.

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  • Sebastian Graves, 2025. "Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 65-100, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:2:p:65-100
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220071
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    Cited by:

    1. Gamber, William & Graham, James & Yadav, Anirudh, 2023. "Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    2. Mitman, Kurt & Broer, Tobias & Kramer, John, 2022. "The Curious Incidence of Monetary Policy Across the Income Distribution," CEPR Discussion Papers 17589, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Kopiec, Paweł, 2024. "The aggregate and distributional effects of fiscal stimuli," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Jung, Euiyoung, 2023. "Wage rigidity and destabilizing spirals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Tobias Broer & Jeppe Druedahl & Karl Harmenberg & Erik Öberg, 2025. "The Unemployment‐Risk Channel in Business‐Cycle Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1425-1458, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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