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Employment, transport infrastructure and rural depopulation: a new spatial equilibrium model

Author

Listed:
  • McArthur, David Philip

    (Dept. of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo)

  • Thorsen, Inge

    (Dept. of Economics, Stord/Haugesund University College)

  • Ubøe, Jan

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new spatial equilibrium model, and use it to discuss issues related to rural depopulation. The discussion focuses on how investments in transport infrastructure and the spatial distribution of basic sector jobs can promote a relatively balanced growth of peripheral and central areas of a region. Through interdependencies in individual migration decisions and an economic base multiplier mechanism, negative exogenous shocks may take a peripheral zone beyond a bifurcation point, into an equilibrium of dramatically lower population and employment. We study how the location of bifurcation points depend on spatial interaction behavioural parameters and variables subject to regional policy. We also discuss the issue of the timing of interventions intended to prevent a process of rural depopulation.

Suggested Citation

  • McArthur, David Philip & Thorsen, Inge & Ubøe, Jan, 2013. "Employment, transport infrastructure and rural depopulation: a new spatial equilibrium model," Discussion Papers 2013/9, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2013_009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kevin Krizek, 2003. "Neighborhood services, trip purpose, and tour-based travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 387-410, November.
    2. Glenn, Paul & Thorsen, Inge & Ubøe, Jan, 2004. "Wage payoffs and distance deterrence in the journey to work," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 853-867, November.
    3. Mitch Renkow, 2007. "Employment Growth and the Allocation of New Jobs: Spatial Spillovers of Economic and Fiscal Impacts," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 396-402.
    4. Arnstein Gjestland & Inge Thorsen & Jan Ubøe, 2006. "Some aspects of the intraregional spatial distribution of local sector activities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(3), pages 559-582, August.
    5. Kent Eliasson & Urban Lindgren & Olle Westerlund, 2003. "Geographical Labour Mobility: Migration or Commuting?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 827-837.
    6. Mark D. Partridge & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2010. "Rural‐to‐Urban Commuting: Three Degrees of Integration," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 303-335, June.
    7. B Harris & A G Wilson, 1978. "Equilibrium Values and Dynamics of Attractiveness Terms in Production-Constrained Spatial-Interaction Models," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 10(4), pages 371-388, April.
    8. John B. Parr, 1966. "Outmigration and the Depressed Area Problem," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(2), pages 149-159.
    9. Handy, Susan L., 1992. "Regional Versus Local Accessibility: Neo-Traditional Development and Its Implications for Non-work Travel," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7gs0p1nc, University of California Transportation Center.
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    2. Thorsen, Helge Sandvig & Thorsen, Inge, 2017. "Effects of transportation barriers on geographic asymmetries in labour markets," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 27-37.
    3. Bao, Ligao & Kusadokoro, Motoi & Chitose, Atsushi, 2025. "Financing road projects and its impact on off-farm work in rural China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Azam Azad Gholami & Inge Thorsen & Jan Ubøe, 2024. "An Agent-based Approach to Study Spatial Structure Effects on Estimated Distance Deterrence in Commuting," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 621-653, September.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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