IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gra/wpaper/10-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

EMU impact of on third countries’ exports. A gravity approach

Author

Listed:
  • Estrella Gómez

    (Universidad de Granada, Departamento de Teoría e Historia Económica)

  • Juliette Milgram Baleix

    (Universidad de Granada, Departamento de Teoría e Historia Económica)

Abstract

In this article we explore the impact of the euro adoption and the effect of the volatility of the real exchange rate on trade both on intra EMU trade and on EMU trade with third countries. To this end, we use a large database covering 93% of world trade that includes 80 countries during the period 1980-2009. We estimate a gravity equation using one of the most complete specifications in the literature to isolate the euro effect from other factors affecting trade, as regional trade agreements or exchange rate volatility. Our results show that the elimination of the volatility boosted export per se especially before 1999 and therefore, the possibility to peg to the euro could boost trade of third countries and between these third countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Estrella Gómez & Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2012. "EMU impact of on third countries’ exports. A gravity approach," ThE Papers 10/26, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    • Handle: RePEc:gra:wpaper:10/26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ugr.es/~teoriahe/RePEc/gra/wpaper/thepapers10_26.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU [‘A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356.
    2. Richard E. Baldwin & Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," NBER Working Papers 12673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
    4. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
    6. Sergio Nardis, 2004. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 625-649, September.
    7. Sergio de Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "The Impact of Euro on Trade: The (Early) Effect is not so Large," ISAE Working Papers 31, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    8. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    10. Christine Sauer & Alok K. Bohara, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Julia Spies, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the east: what effects on trade?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 369-389, September.
    12. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
    13. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    14. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2011. "The impact of the euro on firm export behaviour: does firm size matter?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 355-374, April.
    15. Debasri Mukherjee & Susan Pozo, 2011. "Exchange-rate volatility and trade: a semiparametric approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(13), pages 1617-1627.
    16. Richard Baldwin & Virginia DiNino & Lionel Fontagné & Roberto A. De Santis & Daria Taglioni, 2008. "Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 321, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
    18. Antoine Berthou & Lionel Fontagné, 2008. "The Euro and the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade: Evidence from French Firm Level Data," Working Papers 2008-06, CEPII research center.
    19. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank.
    20. Emerson, Michael & Gros, Daniel & Italianer, Alexander & ,, 1992. "One Market, One Money: An Evaluation of the Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773245.
    21. Brouwer, Jelle & Paap, Richard & Viaene, Jean-Marie, 2008. "The trade and FDI effects of EMU enlargement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 188-208, March.
    22. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, August.
    23. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries Econometric Analysis," Working Papers EMS_2004_02, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    24. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    25. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    26. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
    27. Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Juliette Milgram, 2006. "Exchange-rate policies and trade in the MENA countries," ThE Papers 06/07, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Andrea Saayman & Paolo Figini & Silvio Cassella, 2016. "The influence of formal trade agreements and informal economic cooperation on international tourism flows," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1274-1300, December.
    3. Lavinia Rotili, 2014. "The Euro effects on intermediate and final exports," Working Papers 7/14, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, August.
    2. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    3. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2016. "Currency unions and trade: A post-EMU reassessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 78-91.
    4. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    5. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
    6. Dumitru Miron & Paul-Gabriel Miclaus & Danusia Vamvu, 2018. "Euro’s Trade Effect: Homogeneity Versus Heterogeneity in the Euro Zone," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 8(6), pages 350-360, June.
    7. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, September.
    8. Kelejian, Harry & Tavlas, George S. & Petroulas, Pavlos, 2012. "In the neighborhood: The trade effects of the Euro in a spatial framework," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 314-322.
    9. Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Estrella Gómez, 2011. "The euro effect on trade: evidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques," Working Papers. Serie EC 2011-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 73-85, June.
    11. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Irfan Ahmad Sofi & Naushad Ali Azad, 2016. "Trade implications of the Euro in EMU countries: a panel gravity analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 391-413, May.
    12. Christian Beer, 2011. "Literature Review on the Economic Effects of the Euro on Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22-34.
    13. Herwartz, Helmut & Weber, Henning, 2010. "The euro's trade effect under cross-sectional heterogeneity and stochastic resistance," Kiel Working Papers 1631, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Cieślik Andrzej & Michałek Jan & Michałek Anna, 2014. "Does the Common Currency Increase Exports? Evidence from Firm-Level Data," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 41(1), pages 8-22, March.
    15. Isaac Mensah, 2019. "The euro's effect on trade: an analysis of "old" and "new" EMU members," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 10(1).
    16. Jia Hou, 2020. "Revisiting the trade effects of the euro: data sources and various samples," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2731-2777, December.
    17. Andrzej Cieslik & Jan Michalek & Anna Michalek, 2013. "The Impact Of The Common Currency On Exports Of New Emu Members: Firm-Level Evidence For Slovenia And Slovakia," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 7-23, December.
    18. Tadashi Ito & Toshihiro Okubo, 2016. "The Impact of the Euro on the Quality of Trade: Evidence from the European Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 506-527, July.
    19. Gavin Murphy & Iulia Siedschlaga, 2011. "Has the Euro Boosted Intra-Euro Area Exports? Evidence from Industry Data," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    20. Estrella Gómez-Herrera, 2013. "Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1087-1111, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity equation; International trade; Exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gra:wpaper:10/26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angel Solano Garcia. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dtugres.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.