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A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations

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Abstract

This paper posits an information channel as the explanation for sudden inflations. Consumers saving via nominal government bonds face a choice whether to acquire costly information about future government surpluses. They trade off the cost of acquiring information about the surpluses that back bond repayment against the benefit of a more informed saving decision. Through the information channel, small changes in the economic environment can trigger large responses in consumers' behavior and prices. This setting explains why there can be long stretches of time during which government surpluses have large movements with little inflation response; yet, at some point, something snaps, and a sudden inflation takes off that is strongly responsive to incoming fiscal news.

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  • Marco Bassetto & David S. Miller, 2022. "A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations," Staff Report 641, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:95294
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.641
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    Cited by:

    1. Mackowiak, Bartosz & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2022. "Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17588, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Nicolas Caramp & Dejanir Silva, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 716-746, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal theory of the price level; Sudden inflation; Monetary fiscal interaction; Price level determination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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