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Fiscal Policy and Inflation: Pondering the Imponderables

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  • Eric M. Leeper

Abstract

An asset-pricing perspective on inflation reveals that it depends on current and expected monetary and fiscal policies. There are three ways to carry $1 today into the future: money, bonds, and real assets. That dollar's purchasing power varies inversely with the price level. Expected money growth, tax rates, and government spending directly impinge on these expected rates of return of these assets, and determine the price level and the inflation rate. The paper considers a tax reduction that is financed by new government debt. It examines how alternative responses of current and future policies to the tax cut can imply very different outcomes for inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric M. Leeper, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation: Pondering the Imponderables," NBER Working Papers 9506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9506 Note: EFG
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Leeper & Tack Yun, 2006. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and the price level:Background and beyond," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(4), pages 373-409, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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