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The Distributional Impact of the Minimum Wage in the Short and Long Run

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Abstract

We develop a framework with rich worker heterogeneity, firm monopsony power, and putty-clay technology to study the distributional impact of the minimum wage in the short and long run. Our production technology is disciplined to be consistent with the small estimated employment effects of the minimum wage in the short run and the large estimated elasticities of substitution across inputs in the long run. We find that in the short run, a large increase in the minimum wage has a small effect on employment and therefore increases the labor income of the workers who were earning less than the new minimum wage. In the long run, however, the minimum wage has perverse distributional implications in that it reduces the employment, income, and welfare of precisely the low-income workers it is meant to help. Nonetheless, these long-run effects take time to fully materialize because firms slowly adjust their mix of inputs. Existing transfer programs, such as the earned income tax credit (EITC), are more effective at improving long-run outcomes for workers at the low end of the wage distribution. But combining existing programs with a modest increase in the minimum wage generates even larger welfare gains for low-earning workers.

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  • Erik Hurst & Patrick J. Kehoe & Elena Pastorino & Thomas Winberry, 2022. "The Distributional Impact of the Minimum Wage in the Short and Long Run," Staff Report 640, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:94531
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.640
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    Cited by:

    1. Luke Haywood, 2023. "Gendered Effects of the Minimum Wage," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2023/450, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Florio, Erminia & Kharazi, Aicha, 2022. "Curtailment of Economic Activity and Labor Inequalities," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1166, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Oscar Iván Ávila-Montealegre & Anderson Grajales-Olarte & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2023. "Minimum Wage and Macroeconomic Adjustment: Insights from a Small Open, Emerging, Economy with Formal and Informal Labor," Borradores de Economia 1264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Moritz Drechsel-Grau, 2023. "Employment and Reallocation Effects of Higher Minimum Wages," CESifo Working Paper Series 10412, CESifo.
    5. Dami'an Vergara, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Optimal Redistribution," Papers 2202.00839, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    6. Breda, Thomas & Haywood, Luke & Wang, Haomin, 2022. "Equilibrium Effects of Payroll Tax Reductions and Optimal Policy Design," IZA Discussion Papers 15810, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment; Earned income tax credit; Progressive tax and transfer system; Monopsony; Putty-clay capital; Inequality; Unemployment; Labor market participation; Labor income; Redistribution; Monopsonistic competition; Wages; Search frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • J69 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Other

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