IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp14747.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-analysis Plan

Author

Listed:
  • Clemens, Jeffrey

    (University of California, San Diego)

  • Strain, Michael R.

    (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research)

Abstract

This paper advances the use of pre-analysis plans in non-experimental research settings. In a study of recent minimum wage changes, we demonstrate how analyses of medium- and long-run impacts of policy interventions can be pre-specified as extensions to short-run analyses. Further, our pre-analysis plan includes comparisons of the effects of large vs. small minimum wage increases, which is a theoretically motivated dimension of heterogeneity. We discuss how these use cases harness the strengths of pre-analysis plans while mitigating their weaknesses. This project's initial analyses explored CPS and ACS data from 2011 through 2015. Alongside these analyses, we pre-committed to analyses incorporating CPS and ACS data extending through 2019. Averaging across the specifications in our pre-analysis plan, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced employment rates among low-skilled individuals by just over 2.5 percentage points. Our estimates of the effects of relatively small minimum wage increases vary across data sets and specifications but are, on average, both economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. We estimate that medium-run effects exceed short-run effects and that the elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage is substantially more negative for large minimum wage increases than for small increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2021. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-analysis Plan," IZA Discussion Papers 14747, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14747
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp14747.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Meer & Jeremy West, 2016. "Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(2), pages 500-522.
    2. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    3. Martha J. Bailey & John DiNardo & Bryan A. Stuart, 2021. "The Economic Impact of a High National Minimum Wage: Evidence from the 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S2), pages 329-367.
    4. José Azar & Emiliano Huet & Ioana Marinescu & Bledi Taska & Till von, 2024. "Minimum Wage Employment Effects and Labour Market Concentration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 1843-1883.
    5. Garret Christensen & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Transparency, Reproducibility, and the Credibility of Economics Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 920-980, September.
    6. Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Daniel Reck & Peer Ebbesen Skov, 2020. "Do Lower Minimum Wages for Young Workers Raise Their Employment? Evidence from a Danish Discontinuity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 339-354, May.
    7. Humphreys, Macartan & Sanchez de la Sierra, Raul & van der Windt, Peter, 2013. "Fishing, Commitment, and Communication: A Proposal for Comprehensive Nonbinding Research Registration," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila S. Lindner & David Zentler-Munro, 2021. "Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 28399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2018. "Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2016," IZA Discussion Papers 11427, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Caliendo Marco & Wittbrodt Linda & Schröder Carsten, 2019. "The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 257-292, August.
    11. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2019. "Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2017," IZA Discussion Papers 12388, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Radhakrishnan Gopalan & Barton H. Hamilton & Ankit Kalda & David Sovich, 2021. "State Minimum Wages, Employment, and Wage Spillovers: Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(3), pages 673-707.
    13. Jeffrey Clemens, 2021. "How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage Increases? Understanding the Relevance of Non-employment Margins," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    14. Sarah A. Janzen & Jeffrey D. Michler, 2021. "Ulysses' pact or Ulysses' raft: Using pre‐analysis plans in experimental and nonexperimental research," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1286-1304, December.
    15. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2022. "Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 384-417, October.
    16. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    17. Jeffrey Clemens & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "The Long-Run Effects of the Affordable Care Act: A Pre-Committed Research Design Over the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery," NBER Working Papers 27999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    19. Clemens, Jeffrey & Wither, Michael, 2019. "The minimum wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 53-67.
    20. Raj Chetty, 2008. "Moral Hazard versus Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 173-234, April.
    21. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2017. "Estimating the Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Early Evidence, an Interpretative Framework, and a Pre-Commitment to Future Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Niklas Engbom & Christian Moser, 2022. "Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3803-3847, December.
    23. Dale Belman & Paul J. Wolfson, 2014. "What Does the Minimum Wage Do?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wdmwd.
    24. Ellora Derenoncourt & Claire Montialoux, 2021. "Minimum Wages and Racial Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 169-228.
    25. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2020. "Minimum Wage Analysis Using a Pre-Committed Research Design: Evidence through 2018," IZA Discussion Papers 13286, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    26. Marika Cabral & Michael Geruso & Neale Mahoney, 2018. "Do Larger Health Insurance Subsidies Benefit Patients or Producers? Evidence from Medicare Advantage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2048-2087, August.
    27. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    28. Peter Harasztosi & Attila Lindner, 2019. "Who Pays for the Minimum Wage?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2693-2727, August.
    29. Ekaterina Jardim & Mark C. Long & Robert Plotnick & Emma van Inwegen & Jacob Vigdor & Hilary Wething, 2018. "Minimum Wage Increases and Individual Employment Trajectories," NBER Working Papers 25182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2018. "The Short‐Run Employment Effects Of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence From The American Community Survey," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 711-722, October.
    31. Burlig, Fiona, 2018. "Improving transparency in observational social science research: A pre-analysis plan approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 56-60.
    32. Neumark, David & Yen, Maysen, 2020. "Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Policies in California and Nationwide: Initial Results from a Pre-specified Analysis Plan," IZA Discussion Papers 13062, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    33. Isaac Sorkin, 2015. "Are There Long-Run Effects of the Minimum Wage?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 306-333, April.
    34. Raj Chetty, 2008. "Moral Hazard versus Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 173-234, April.
    35. Ellora Derenoncourt & Claire Montialoux, 0. "Minimum Wages and Racial Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(1), pages 169-228.
    36. Janet Currie & Henrik Kleven & Esmée Zwiers, 2020. "Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics: Mining Text to Track Methods," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 42-48, May.
    37. Bhaskar, V & To, Ted, 1999. "Minimum Wages for Ronald McDonald Monopsonies: A Theory of Monopsonistic Competition," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 190-203, April.
    38. Okudaira, Hiroko & Takizawa, Miho & Yamanouchi, Kenta, 2019. "Minimum wage effects across heterogeneous markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 110-122.
    39. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    40. Jeffrey Clemens & Lisa B. Kahn & Jonathan Meer, 2021. "Dropouts Need Not Apply? The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S1), pages 107-149.
    41. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    42. Bound, John & Johnson, George, 1992. "Changes in the Structure of Wages in the 1980's: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 371-392, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2425, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    2. Jonathan Meer & Hedieh Tajali, 2023. "Effects of the minimum wage on the nonprofit sector," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1012-1032.
    3. Kim, Jiyoon & Levere, Michael & Magenheim, Ellen, 2025. "Do minimum wage increases induce changes in work behavior for people with disabilities? Evidence from the AbilityOne program," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Hampton, Matt & Totty, Evan, 2023. "Minimum wages, retirement timing, and labor supply," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "When the minimum wage really bites hard: The negative spillover effect on high-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Tarasonis, Linas, 2023. "Wage and Employment Impact of Minimum Wage: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 592-609.
    7. Link, Sebastian, 2024. "The price and employment response of firms to the introduction of minimum wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    8. Dami'an Vergara, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Optimal Redistribution," Papers 2202.00839, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    9. Liu, Qing & Lu, Ruosi & Teng Sun, Stephen & Zhang, Meng, 2024. "Unintended workplace safety consequences of minimum wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    10. Michael R. Strain, 2021. "An Argument Against The $15 Minimum Wage," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 1289-1297, September.
    11. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2025. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes on Hours Worked: Evidence Using a Partially Pre-Committed Analysis Plan," IZA Discussion Papers 17913, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2022. "Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 384-417, October.
    13. Lavecchia, Adam M., 2020. "Minimum wage policy with optimal taxes and unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    14. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2022. "Understanding “Wage Theft”: Evasion and avoidance responses to minimum wage increases," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Jeffrey Clemens & Lisa B. Kahn & Jonathan Meer, 2021. "Dropouts Need Not Apply? The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S1), pages 107-149.
    16. Fone, Zachary S. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Cesur, Resul, 2023. "The unintended effects of minimum wage increases on crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    17. Paul Redmond & Seamus McGuinness, 2025. "The impact of a minimum wage increase on hours worked: heterogeneous effects by gender and sector," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(365), pages 84-106, January.
    18. Clemens, Jeffrey, 2019. "Making Sense of the Minimum Wage: A Roadmap for Navigating Recent Research," MPRA Paper 94324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Martha J. Bailey & John DiNardo & Bryan A. Stuart, 2021. "The Economic Impact of a High National Minimum Wage: Evidence from the 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S2), pages 329-367.
    20. Kunaschk, Max, 2024. "The effects of minimum wages on employment and prices—Evidence from the hairdressing sector," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    minimum wages; employment; pre-commitment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14747. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.