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Push or Pull? Measuring the labor supply response to the minimum wage using an individual-level panel

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  • Ernest Boffy-Ramirez

Abstract

For individuals in low-wage labour markets, an increase in the minimum wage can theoretically pull them into or push them out of the labour force. If increases raise expected wages beyond reservation wages, marginal individuals could enter the labour force and begin searching for employment. If increases lower expected wages, marginal individuals already in the labour force could exit. Leveraging revised individual identifiers in the U.S. Current Population Survey, this research estimates the contemporaneous effects of minimum wage increases on labour force participation. The use of within-person variation, short individual panels, and flexible controls for time create an empirical strategy that mitigates potential biases from unobserved constant individual-level heterogeneity and time-varying factors. This research finds that minimum wage changes tend to impact the youngest individuals, but there is substantial heterogeneity in responses by age, race/ethnicity, and sex. There is stronger evidence of pull effects amongst young white men and Latinos, and weaker evidence amongst young Black women and older Latinas. Weak evidence of push effects is observed amongst younger white women, younger Latinos, and older Latinas. This research highlights heterogeneous labour force participation responses to further inform our understanding of search behaviour and labour market churn.

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  • Ernest Boffy-Ramirez, 2022. "Push or Pull? Measuring the labor supply response to the minimum wage using an individual-level panel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(35), pages 4043-4059, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:54:y:2022:i:35:p:4043-4059
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.2020713
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    1. Neumark David, 2019. "The Econometrics and Economics of the Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Getting from Known Unknowns to Known Knowns," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 293-329, August.
    2. Clemens, Jeffrey & Wither, Michael, 2019. "The minimum wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 53-67.
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