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Incentives and Stability of International Climate Coalitions: An Integrated Assessment

  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC)

  • Carlo Carraro

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, University of Venice, CEPR, CESifo and CMCC)

  • Enrica De Cian

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC)

  • Emanuele Massetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC)

  • Massimo Tavoni

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC)

This paper analyses the incentives to participate in and the stability of international climate coalitions. Using the integrated assessment model WITCH, the analysis of coalitions’ profitability and stability is performed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the social welfare aggregator and the extent of climate damages. We focus on the profitability, stability, and “potential stability” of a number of coalitions which are “potentially effective” in reducing emissions. We find that only the grand coalition under a specific sets of assumptions finds it optimal to stabilise GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO2-eq. However, the grand coalition is found not to be stable, not even “potentially stable” even through an adequate set of transfers. However, there exist potentially stable coalitions, but of smaller size, which are also potentially environmentally effective. Depending on the assumptions made, they could achieve up to 600 ppm CO2-eq. More ambitious targets lead to the collapse of the coalition.

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Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2011.97.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.97
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  1. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Enrica De Cian & Romain Duval & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The Incentives to Participate in, and the Stability of, International Climate Coalitions: A Game-theoretic Analysis Using the Witch Model," Working Papers 2009.64, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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