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Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change: A Literature Review

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphanie Jamet

    (OECD)

  • Jan Corfee-Morlot

    (OECD)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have significant implications for the world economy and, more broadly, for many areas of human activity. The purpose of this review is twofold. First, it is to summarise current estimates of the impacts of climate change and to explain how these estimates are built in order to identify the main sources of uncertainty and approximation affecting them. Second, the paper discusses how this uncertainty should influence policymaker?s decisions. A main conclusion of the review is that there are large uncertainties, which are not fully reflected in existing estimates of global impacts of climate change in monetary units. Nonetheless, despite these uncertainties, policy action may be justified, provided that policies are cost-effective, even if the marginal cost of GHG emissions mitigation exceeds the marginal damage of one additional ton of carbon. This is because two features of the impacts of climate change tilt the balance in favour of action: their irreversibility, and the risk that they are extreme. Évaluer les impacts du changement climatique : Une revue de la littérature Le changement climatique devrait avoir des conséquences importantes sur l'économie mondiale et, plus généralement, sur un large éventail d'activités humaines. L'objectif de cette revue est double. D?une part, il s'agit de résumer les estimations récentes des impacts du changement climatique et d'expliquer comment ces estimations sont obtenues afin d'identifier les principales sources d'incertitude et d'approximation qui les entourent. D'autre part, la façon dont cette incertitude devrait influencer les décisions des responsables politiques est discutée. L'une des conclusions principales de cette revue est qu'il existe un grand nombre d'incertitudes autour des impacts du changement climatique qui ne sont pas pleinement reflétées dans les estimations des impacts globaux exprimés en unité monétaire. Néanmoins, en dépit de ces incertitudes, une politique active pourrait être justifiée, à condition que ces politiques soient efficaces au regard des coûts, même si le coût marginal de réduction des émissions des gaz à effet de serres est supérieur au coût marginal d'une tonne additionnelle de carbone. Ce résultat provient de deux caractéristiques des impacts qui inclinent la balance en faveur de l'action : leur irréversibilité et le risque qu'ils soient extrêmes.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphanie Jamet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2009. "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change: A Literature Review," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 691, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:691-en
    DOI: 10.1787/224864018517
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Valentina Bosetti & Enrica De Cian, 2013. "A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(2), pages 255-276, October.
    2. Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & De Cian, Enrica & Massetti, Emanuele & Tavoni, Massimo, 2013. "Incentives and stability of international climate coalitions: An integrated assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 44-56.
    3. Schenker, Oliver, 2010. "Transporting goods and damages. The role of trade on the distribution of climate change costs," MPRA Paper 25350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. May Elsayyad & Florian Morath, 2016. "Technology Transfers For Climate Change," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1057-1084, August.
    5. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 51-87, January.
    6. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Someshwar, Shiv, 2012. "Green Growth and Equity in the Context of Climate Change: Some Considerations," ADBI Working Papers 371, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Carlo Carraro & Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2009. "An Analysis of Adaptation as a Response to Climate Change," Working Papers 2009_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    8. Paul Ekins & Stefan Speck, 2014. "The fiscal implications of climate change and policy responses," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-374, March.
    9. Kästel, Peter & Gilroy-Scott, Bryce, 2015. "Economics of pooling small local electricity prosumers—LCOE & self-consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 718-729.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    changement climatique; climate change; extreme events; impact; impact; incertitude; irreversibility; irréversibilité; uncertainty; événements extrêmes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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