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Can Ageing North Benefit from Expanding Trade with South?

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  • Marcel Mérette
  • Patrick Georges
  • Katerina Lisenkova

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the benefit for the ageing North countries of diversifying some of its trade away from the other North countries in favour of the South countries. To this end we use a six-region overlapping generations model that takes into account the demographic trends of the 21st century and trade patterns. We show that ageing Northern countries can benefit from “enriching decay” through significant improvement in the terms of trade. We estimate to what extent the enriching decay can be bolstered if the North expands trade with the South. In Europe, for instance, appropriate trade diversification strategy may prop up Europe’s real per capita consumption by 3%. See above See above

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Mérette & Patrick Georges & Katerina Lisenkova, 2013. "Can Ageing North Benefit from Expanding Trade with South?," EcoMod2013 6162, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:004912:6162
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    Cited by:

    1. Beissinger, Thomas & Hellier, Joël & Marczak, Martyna, 2020. "Divergence in Labour Force Growth: Should Wages and Prices Grow Faster in Germany?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 620, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. K. V. Nesterova, 2018. "Multiregional Models of General Equilibrium: Framework and Applications," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management..
    3. Georges, Patrick & Seçkin, Aylin, 2016. "From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 79-93.
    4. Kolasa, Aleksandra & Rubaszek, Michał, 2016. "The effect of ageing on the European economies in a life-cycle model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 50-57.
    5. Katerina Lisenkova, 2016. "An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-variable Rate of Time Preference," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 458, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Patrick Georges, 2017. "Canada’s Trade Policy Options under Donald Trump: NAFTA’s rules of origin, Canada-U.S. security perimeter, and Canada’s geographical trade diversification opportunities," Working Papers 1707E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    North Countries - South Countries; Trade and regional integration; General equilibrium modeling (CGE);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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