IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ekd/004912/6162.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Ageing North Benefit from Expanding Trade with South?

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Mérette
  • Patrick Georges
  • Katerina Lisenkova

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the benefit for the ageing North countries of diversifying some of its trade away from the other North countries in favour of the South countries. To this end we use a six-region overlapping generations model that takes into account the demographic trends of the 21st century and trade patterns. We show that ageing Northern countries can benefit from “enriching decay” through significant improvement in the terms of trade. We estimate to what extent the enriching decay can be bolstered if the North expands trade with the South. In Europe, for instance, appropriate trade diversification strategy may prop up Europe’s real per capita consumption by 3%. See above See above

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Mérette & Patrick Georges & Katerina Lisenkova, 2013. "Can Ageing North Benefit from Expanding Trade with South?," EcoMod2013 6162, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:004912:6162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ecomod.net/system/files/North-South-Special-Issue-Paper_final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    4. David Carey & Josette Rabesona, 2003. "Tax Ratios on Labour and Capital Income and on Consumption," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2002(2), pages 129-174.
    5. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fougère, Maxime & Harvey, Simon & Mercenier, Jean & Mérette, Marcel, 2009. "Population ageing, time allocation and human capital: A general equilibrium analysis for Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 30-39, January.
    7. Findlay, Ronald, 1980. "The Terms of Trade and Equilibrium Growth in the World Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 291-299, June.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "The World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 659-694.
    9. Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "Armington Elasticities and Terms of Trade Effects in Global CGE Models," Staff Working Papers 0601, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    10. Peter Lloyd & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "The Armington Model," Staff Working Papers 0602, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    11. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    12. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 2000. "Knowledge Dissemination, Capital Accumulation, Trade, and Endogenous Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 637-650, October.
    13. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 517-526, April.
    14. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2013. "Generational Policy and Aging in Closed and Open Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1719-1800, Elsevier.
    15. Ricardo A. López, 2005. "Trade and Growth: Reconciling the Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 623-648, September.
    16. Mérette Marcel & Georges Patrick, 2010. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Analysis of Ageing, Capital Flows, and International Trade," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-39, October.
    17. Jagdish Bhagwati, 1958. "Immiserizing Growth: A Geometrical Note," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 201-205.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. K. V. Nesterova, 2018. "Multiregional Models of General Equilibrium: Framework and Applications," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management..
    2. Beissinger, Thomas & Hellier, Joël & Marczak, Martyna, 2020. "Divergence in Labour Force Growth: Should Wages and Prices Grow Faster in Germany?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 620, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Georges, Patrick & Seçkin, Aylin, 2016. "From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 79-93.
    4. Katerina Lisenkova, 2016. "An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-variable Rate of Time Preference," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 458, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Patrick Georges, 2017. "Canada’s Trade Policy Options under Donald Trump: NAFTA’s rules of origin, Canada-U.S. security perimeter, and Canada’s geographical trade diversification opportunities," Working Papers 1707E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    6. Kolasa, Aleksandra & Rubaszek, Michał, 2016. "The effect of ageing on the European economies in a life-cycle model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 50-57.
    7. Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина), 2018. "The Construction of a Global General Equilibrium Model for the Russian Economy Based on International Experience [Построение Глобальной Модели Общего Равновесия Для Российской Экономики На Основе М," Working Papers 021807, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mérette Marcel & Georges Patrick, 2010. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Analysis of Ageing, Capital Flows, and International Trade," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-39, October.
    2. Patrick Georges, 2012. "Trade Diversification Away from the U.S. or North American Customs Union? A Review of Canada’s Trade Policy Options," Working Papers 1205E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    3. Patrick GEORGES & Marcel MERETTE, 2009. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis," EcoMod2009 21500035, EcoMod.
    4. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Bã–Rsch-Supan, Axel, 2017. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 81-107, January.
    5. Patrick Georges & Marcel Mérette & Aylin Seckin§, 2009. "Should Canada Diversify its Trade Pattern? An Overlapping- Generations CGE Analysis of Trade and Ageing," Working Papers 0906E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    6. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Sugata Marjit & Anwesha Basu & C. Veeramani, 2019. "Growth Gains from Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7905, CESifo.
    8. Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2017. "South–South And North–South Economic Exchanges: Does It Matter Who Is Exchanging What And With Whom?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1449-1486, December.
    9. Srinivasan, T.N., 1986. "International Trade and Factor Movements in Development Theory, Policy, and Experience," 1986: Trade and Development Meeting, December 1986, CIMMYT, Mexico City, Mexico 50651, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    10. repec:mea:meawpa:12257 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chai, Jingjing & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph, 2011. "Lifecycle impacts of the financial and economic crisis on household optimal consumption, portfolio choice, and labor supply," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    12. Barbier Edward B & Rauscher Michael, 2007. "Trade and Development in a Labor Surplus Economy," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
    13. Rafael Romeu & Mr. Nelson Camanho da Costa Neto, 2011. "Did Export Diversification Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 2011/099, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Gino A.Gancia, 2003. "Globalization, Divergence and Stagnation," Development Working Papers 174, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    15. Vahagn Galstyan & Philip R. Lane, 2008. "External Imbalances and the Extensive Margin of Trade," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(3), pages 241-257, November.
    16. Ernesto Valenzuela & Kym Anderson & Thomas Hertel, 2008. "Impacts of trade reform: sensitivity of model results to key assumptions," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 395-420, February.
    17. Izmirlioglu, Yusuf, 2008. "The Impact of Population Ageing on Technological Progress and TFP Growth, with Application to United States: 1950-2050," MPRA Paper 24687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. T. Buyse & F. Heylen & R. Van De Kerckhove, 2011. "Pension reform, employment by age, and long-run growth in OECD countries," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/719, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    19. Pedro Antonio Martín Cervantes & Nuria Rueda López & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2020. "The Effect of Globalization on Economic Development Indicators: An Inter-Regional Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, March.
    20. Ermisch, John, 2008. "Population ageing: crisis or opportunity?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-38, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    21. Attanasio Orazio P. & Kitao Sagiri & Violante Giovanni L., 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-44, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    North Countries - South Countries; Trade and regional integration; General equilibrium modeling (CGE);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ekd:004912:6162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecomoea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theresa Leary (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecomoea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.