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Monetary versus macroprudential policies:causal impacts of interest rates andcredit controls in the era of the UKradcliffe report

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  • Aikman, David
  • Bush, Oliver
  • Taylor, Alan M.

Abstract

We have entered a world of conjoined monetary and macroprudential policies. But can they function smoothly in tandem, and with what effects? Since this policy cocktail has not been seen for decades, the empirical evidence is almost non-existent. We can only fix this shortcoming in a historical laboratory. The Radcliffe Report (1959), notoriously skeptical about the efficacy of monetary policy, embodied views which led the UK to a three-decade experiment of using credit controls alongside conventional changes in the central bank interest rate. These non-price tools are similar to policies now being considered or used by macroprudential policymakers. We describe these tools, document how they were used by the authorities, and craft a new, largely hand-collected dataset to help estimate their effects. We develop a novel identification strategy, which we term Factor-Augmented Local Projection (FALP), to investigate the subtly different impacts of both monetary and macroprudential policies. Monetary policy acted on output and inflation broadly in line with consensus views today, but credit controls had markedly different effects and acted primarily to modulate bank lending

Suggested Citation

  • Aikman, David & Bush, Oliver & Taylor, Alan M., 2016. "Monetary versus macroprudential policies:causal impacts of interest rates andcredit controls in the era of the UKradcliffe report," Economic History Working Papers 67035, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:wpaper:67035
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    Cited by:

    1. Nelson, Edward, 2017. "Reaffirming the Influence of Milton Friedman on U.K. Economic Policy," Working Papers 2017-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2017.
    2. Masayuki Inui & Nao Sudo & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    3. Masayuki Inui & Nao Sudo & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality in Japan," BIS Working Papers 642, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Klingelhöfer, Jan & Sun, Rongrong, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Central Banks and Financial Stability: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 79033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Donato Masciandaro, 2014. "Macroeconomic Ideas, Business Cycles and Economic Policies: One Size Doesn’t Fit All - A Primer," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 14161, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Historical National Accounts; Gross Domestic Income; Double deflation; Real Exchange Rate; Terms of Trade; Switzerland;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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