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Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States

Author

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  • Breinlich, Holger
  • Leromain, Elsa
  • Novy, Dennis
  • Sampson, Thomas

Abstract

In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization reduces exports within industries by shrinking real market potential. We find this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). There was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our estimates to calibrate a quantitative model and show that scale economies are economically important for trade policy analysis. Although PNTR increased aggregate US exports relative to GDP, exports declined in the most exposed industries. US gains from PNTR are positive but 30 percent smaller than under constant returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2026. "Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127595, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:127595
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/127595/
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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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