IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eei/rpaper/eeri_rp_2013_05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonlinear Phenomena in a Growing Economy with Convex Adjustment Costs

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro de Mendonça

Abstract

We discuss the implications of nonlinear dynamic phenomena for policy definition in a growing economy. De- parting from the hypothesis that local analysis of economic systems focus the definition of policy on short run outcomes, we propose that to have a clearer perspective on long run outcomes, we have to focus the analysis on the study of local bifurcations and global dynamics instead. This approach, in our opinion, provides a better insight on complex macroeconomic phenomena and allows for a better definition of policy rules in a long run horizon. To demonstrate this hypothesis, we set up a representative agent economy based on neoclassical assumptions, where agents face convex risk premium and investment adjustment costs. This economy describes an endogenous opti- mal growth model, that has solutions given by a nonlinear three-dimensional dynamical system. To evaluate this system, we resort to qualitative analysis methods and show the existence of fold (saddle-node), hopf and fold-hopf bifurcations, in a multiple equilibria environment. Numerical results suggest the absence of local stable solutions for a wide range of parameter values. We then focus our analysis on the complex organization of the economy phase-space and evaluate several conjectures related to the existence of complex nonlinear phenomena in the vicinity of fold-hopf bifurcation points. We relate these conjectures with the hypothesis of endogenous structural change and discuss the implications of complex global dynamic phenomena for long run policy definition.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro de Mendonça, 2013. "Nonlinear Phenomena in a Growing Economy with Convex Adjustment Costs," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2013/05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2013_05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2013_05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Mauricio Drelichman & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "Debt Sustainability in Historical Perspective: The Role of Fiscal Repression," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 657-667, 04-05.
    3. Wirl, Franz, 2002. "Stability and limit cycles in competitive equilibria subject to adjustment costs and dynamic spillovers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 375-398, March.
    4. Slobodyan, Sergey, 2007. "Indeterminacy and stability in a modified Romer model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-177, March.
    5. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2000. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 335-362, January.
    6. Jean-Pierre Drugeon, 1998. "A model with endogenously determined cycles, discounting and growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(2), pages 349-369.
    7. Fuchs, Gerard, 1975. "Structural stability for dynamical economic models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 139-154.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
    10. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    11. Eicher, Theo S. & Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2008. "Dynamic effects of terms of trade shocks: The impact on debt and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 876-896, October.
    12. Thomas I. Palley, 2013. "A Theory of Minsky Super-cycles and Financial Crises," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Financialization, chapter 8, pages 126-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-226, May.
    14. Greiner Alfred & Semmler Willi, 1996. "Saddle Path Stability, Fluctuations, and Indeterminacy in Economic Growth," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-16, July.
    15. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    16. Massimo Di Matteo, 2009. "Economic Dynamics as a Succession of Equilibria: The Path Travelled by Morishima," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 1209, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
    17. Paolo Mattana & Kazuo Nishimura & Tadashi Shigoka, 2012. "Homoclinic Bifurcation and Global Indeterminacy of Equilibrium in a Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Model," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 427-451, Springer.
    18. Shafer, Wayne & Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1993. "Market demand and excess demand functions," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 671-693, Elsevier.
    19. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    20. McKenzie, Lionel W, 1998. "Turnpikes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 1-14, May.
    21. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Guimaraes, Bernardo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2006. "International lending of last resort and moral hazard: A model of IMF's catalytic finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 441-471, April.
    22. Veneziani, Roberto & Mohun, Simon, 2006. "Structural stability and Goodwin's growth cycle," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 437-451, December.
    23. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2002. "Knife-Edge Conditions And The Macrodynamics Of Small Open Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 307-335, April.
    24. Lionel W. McKenzie, 2012. "turnpike theory," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    25. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, March.
    26. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5027-5067, December.
    27. Kazuo Nishimura & Tadashi Shigoka, 2006. "Sunspots and Hopf bifurcations in continuous time endogenous growth models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 2(3‐4), pages 199-216, September.
    28. Frank Hilker & Horst Malchow, 2006. "Strange Periodic Attractors in a Prey-Predator System with Infected Prey," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 119-134.
    29. Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2008. "Complex evolutionary systems in behavioral finance," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    30. Tyrrell Rockafellar, R., 1976. "Saddle points of Hamiltonian systems in convex Lagrange problems having a nonzero discount rate," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 71-113, February.
    31. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    32. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
    33. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1973. "Do Walras' identity and continuity characterize the class of community excess demand functions?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 345-354, August.
    34. Nishimura, Kiyohiko Giichi, 1981. "On uniqueness of a steady state and convergence of optimal paths in multisector models of optimal growth with a discount rate," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 157-167, April.
    35. Frédéric Lordon, 1995. "Cycles et chaos dans un modèle hétérodoxe de croissance endogène," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(6), pages 1405-1432.
    36. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bella, Giovanni & Mattana, Paolo, 2014. "Global indeterminacy of the equilibrium in the Chamley model of endogenous growth in the vicinity of a Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 69-79.
    2. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    4. Joshi, Sumit, 2003. "The stochastic turnpike property without uniformity in convex aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1289-1315, May.
    5. Alali, Walid Y., 2010. "Cross Countries Economic Performances - SPF Approach," EconStor Preprints 269923, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sabuhi Yusifov & Khatai Aliyev & Samra Talishinskaya, 2019. "The role of social and physical infrastructure spending in tradable and non-tradable growth," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    7. Verma, R. & Wilson, E.J., 2005. "Savings, Investment, Foreign Inflows and Economic Growth of the Indian Economy 1950-2001," Economics Working Papers wp05-23, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    9. Martin Fleming, 2021. "Productivity Growth and Capital Deepening in the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Working Papers 010, The Productivity Institute.
    10. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
    11. Ha-Joon Chang & Ali Cheema & L. Mises, 2002. "Conditions For Successful Technology Policy In Developing Countries—Learning Rents, State Structures, And Institutions," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4-5), pages 369-398.
    12. Walid Y Alali, 2009. "Cross Countries Economic Performances - SPF Approach," Post-Print hal-03832570, HAL.
    13. Iris Claus & David Haugh & Grant Scobie & Jonas Tornquist, 2001. "Saving and growth in an open economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/32, New Zealand Treasury.
    14. repec:bap:eebook:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Duffy, John & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2000. "A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 87-120, March.
    16. Reetu Verma, 2007. "Savings, Investment and Growth in India," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 8(1), pages 87-98, January.
    17. Russo, Emanuele & Foster-McGregor, Neil & Verspagen, Bart, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," MERIT Working Papers 2019-026, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    18. Eftychia Tsanana & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 641-662, November.
    19. Verma, R. & Wilson, E.J., 2005. "A Multivariate Analysis of Savings, Investment, and Growth in India," Economics Working Papers wp05-24, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    20. P Pegkas & C Tsamadias, 2016. "How important are foreign and domestic investments, exports and human capital for Greece's economic growth?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(1), pages 23-45, March.
    21. Zaiter Lahimer, Mahjouba, 2011. "L’impact des entrées de capitaux privés sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/7670 edited by Sterdyniak, Henri.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear Growth Dynamics; Financial Instability; Fold-Hopf Bifurcation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2013_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia van Hove (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eeriibe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.