The Impact of US Sanctions on Food Security: Evidence from a Global Panel

We examine the impact of U.S. sanctions on food security using a panel of 185 economies over 1990-2017, linking the World Food Programme (WFP) multidimensional food security indicator system to sanction episodes. Using difference-in-differences identification strategy and an event-study design, we show that sanctions significantly reduce food security in target countries, widening the gap with non-sanctioned countries by about 30 percent. Effects are concentrated in food access and stability-key dimensions of household food affordability and resilience-and are primarily driven by trade and financial restrictions. Mechanism analysis indicates that sanctions operate through both supply and demand channels. On the supply side, they reduce food imports and domestic production. On the demand side, they lower income, raise inflation and unemployment, and weaken political stability. Notably, the sanction impacts are strongest in low- and lower-middle-income countries, where food systems are more vulnerable to external shocks. These results highlight substantial and uneven humanitarian costs of sanctions for food security.