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Targeting autocrats: Economic sanctions and regime change

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  • Oechslin, Manuel

Abstract

When it comes to international economic sanctions, the most frequent goal is regime change and democratization. Yet, past experiences suggest that such sanctions are often ineffective; moreover, quite paradoxically, targeted regimes tend to respond with policies that amplify the sanctions' harmful effects. This paper offers a political-economy model which provides an explanation for these observations. An autocratic regime lowers the supply of public goods to reduce private-sector productivity and hence the resources of potential challengers. As a result, sanctions-induced challenges become less likely, thereby buying the regime time to find exile opportunities. If these opportunities turn out to be of low quality, the regime prefers to hold out — and the sanctions fail.

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  • Oechslin, Manuel, 2014. "Targeting autocrats: Economic sanctions and regime change," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 24-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:24-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.07.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, 2019. "The impact of economic sanctions on international trade: How do threatened sanctions compare with imposed sanctions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 11-26.
    3. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "Precision-guided or blunt? The effects of US economic sanctions on human rights," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 161-182, October.
    4. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2021. "Foreign Influence and Domestic Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 426-487, June.
    5. Manuel Oechslin & Mauricio Rodriguez, 2021. "Fiscal weakness, the (under-) provision of public services, and institutional reform," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 20-44, January.
    6. Hyejin Kim & Jungmin Lee, 2021. "The Economic Costs of Diplomatic Conflict: Evidence from the South Korea–China THAAD Dispute," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 37, pages 225-262.
    7. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2015. "The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 110-125.
    8. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "The curse is real in Zimbabwe: economic sanctions must go!," MPRA Paper 96911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hyejin Kim & Jungmin Lee, 2020. "The Economic Costs of Diplomatic Conflict," Working Papers 2020-25, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    10. Carlo de Bassa & Edoardo Grillo & Francesco Passarelli, 2021. "Sanctions and incentives to repudiate external debt," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 33(2), pages 198-224, April.
    11. Chen, Yin E. & Fu, Qiang & Zhao, Xinxin & Yuan, Xuemei & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "International sanctions’ impact on energy efficiency in target states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-34.
    12. Farshid Pourshahabi & Nazar Dahmardeh, 2015. "Economic Sanctions, Speculative Attacks and Currency Crisis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 340-355, February.
    13. Ilieva, Jana & Dashtevski, Aleksandar & Kokotovic, Filip, 2018. "Economic Sanctions In Internationallaw," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 9(2), pages 201-211.
    14. Jie Sun & Lewis Makosa & Jinkun Yang & Fangyuan Yin & Moses Jachi & Wellington Garikai Bonga, 2021. "Externalities of economic sanctions on performance of intra‐industry non‐sanctioned firms: Evidence from Zimbabwe," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(5), pages 643-664, November.
    15. Kirill Chmel & Alexander Demin & Kirill Kazantcev, 2017. "Dictators’ Behavior Under Conditions of Economic Sanctions Cumulative Effect," HSE Working papers WP BRP 50/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    16. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2016. "The impact of US sanctions on poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 110-119.
    17. Portela, Clara & Mora-Sanguinetti, Juan S., 2023. "Sanctions effectiveness, development and regime type. Are aid suspensions and economic sanctions alike?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    18. Rodriguez Acosta, Mauricio, 2016. "Essays in political economy and resource economic : A macroeconomic approach," Other publications TiSEM 1e39ef1b-43a2-4f95-892c-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Fatemeh Rahimzadeh & Hamed Pirpour & Bahman P. Ebrahimi, 2022. "The impact of economic sanctions on the efficiency of bilateral energy exports: the case of Iran," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-18, September.
    20. Mirkina, Irina, 2018. "FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 198-225.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic sanctions; Regime change; Democratization; Public goods; Exile;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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