IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/drm/wpaper/2016-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio

Author

Listed:
  • Xi Yang

Abstract

This paper investigates the efficiency of leverage ratios and risk-weighted capital ratios as bank failure predictors during the global financial crisis. Analyzing 417 bank failures between 2008 and 2012, we find that the predictive power of different capital ratios is not homogeneous across banks. The simple leverage ratio outperforms the risk-weighted ratio in predicting failures of large banks, while both capital ratios are important in predicting the failure of smaller banks. The better performance of the leverage ratio in the case of large banks is especially important during the crisis period of 2008-2010. The findings support the regulatory reforms proposed by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision on the adoption of a supplementary minimum leverage ratio in order to strengthen the resilience of the bank sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2016-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2016/WP_EcoX_2016-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache & Ouarda Merrouche, 2013. "Bank Capital: Lessons from the Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1147-1164, September.
    3. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    4. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
    5. Michel Aglietta & Laurence Scialom, 2010. "A Systemic Approach to Financial Regulation: a European Perspective," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 123, pages 31-65.
    6. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
    7. Vincent Bouvatier & Michael Brei & Xi Yang, 2014. "Bank Failures and the Source of Strength Doctrine," Working Papers hal-04141351, HAL.
    8. Mariathasan, Mike & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2014. "The manipulation of basel risk-weights," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 300-321.
    9. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    10. Michael Brei & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2016. "Are bank capital ratios pro-cyclical? New evidence and perspectives," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(86), pages 357-403.
    11. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    12. Kenneth Spong, 2000. "Banking regulation : its purposes, implementation, and effects," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, number 2000bria, March.
    13. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    14. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    15. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2008. "Are Bank Holding Companies a Source of Strength to Their Banking Subsidiaries?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 273-294, March.
    16. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    17. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Li, Lei & Tehranian, Hassan, 2013. "The performance of banks around the receipt and repayment of TARP funds: Over-achievers versus under-achievers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 730-746.
    18. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Caroline Roulet, 2013. "Business models of banks, leverage and the distance-to-default," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(2), pages 7-34.
    19. Dermine, Jean, 2015. "Basel III leverage ratio requirement and the probability of bank runs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 266-277.
    20. Martin Hellwig, 2010. "Capital Regulation after the Crisis: Business as Usual?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(02), pages 40-46, July.
    21. repec:erf:erfstu:78 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. R. Alton Gilbert & Courtenay C. Stone & Michael E. Trebing, 1985. "The new bank capital adequacy standards," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 67(May), pages 12-20.
    23. repec:ces:ifodic:v:8:y:2010:i:2:p:14566986 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Li, Lei, 2013. "TARP funds distribution and bank loan supply," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4777-4792.
    25. Martin Hellwig, 2010. "Capital Regulation after the Crisis: Business as Usual?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(2), pages 40-46, 07.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Noel, Dennison, 2020. "The bank capital-competition-risk nexus – A global perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. E Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim & Dennison Noel, 2020. "The Effects of Macroprudential Policy on Banks' Profitability," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 514, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. E Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim & Dennison Noel, 2019. "Bank Leverage Ratios, Risk and Competition - An Investigation Using Individual Bank Data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 499, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Davis, E Philip & Ali Abdilahi, Ridwa, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Bank Profitability in Three Major African Counties: Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 536, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Noel, Dennison, 2022. "The effects of macroprudential policy on banks' profitability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," Working Papers hal-04141595, HAL.
    2. Chiaramonte, Laura & Croci, Ettore & Poli, Federica, 2015. "Should we trust the Z-score? Evidence from the European Banking Industry," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 111-131.
    3. Stelios Markoulis & Panagiotis Ioannou & Spiros Martzoukos, 2023. "Bank distress in the European Union 2008–2015: A closer look at capital, size and revenue diversification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 792-820, January.
    4. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Molyneux, Philip, 2020. "Beyond common equity: The influence of secondary capital on bank insolvency risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    5. Rainer Baule & Christian Tallau, 2016. "Revisiting Basel risk weights: cross-sectional risk sensitivity and cyclicality," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(8), pages 905-931, November.
    6. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
    7. Behn, Markus & Haselmann, Rainer & Vig, Vikrant, 2014. "Risk weights, lending, and financial stability: Limits to model-based capital regulation," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100430, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Chernykh, Lucy & Cole, Rebel A., 2015. "How should we measure bank capital adequacy for triggering Prompt Corrective Action? A (simple) proposal," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 131-143.
    9. Croci, Ettore & Hertig, Gerard & Nowak, Eric, 2016. "Decision-making during the credit crisis: Did the Treasury let commercial banks fail?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 476-497.
    10. Viral V Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2021. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4090-4131.
    11. Christina Bui, 2018. "Bank Regulation and Financial Stability," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2018, January-A.
    12. Viral V. Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2023. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_446, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    13. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Vikrant Vig, 2022. "The Limits of Model‐Based Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1635-1684, June.
    14. Mariathasan, Mike & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2014. "The manipulation of basel risk-weights," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 300-321.
    15. Berger, Allen N. & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, 2021. "Banking research in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Giovanni Ferri & Marco Savioli, 2022. "Regulatory reform and banking diversity: reassessing Basel 3," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 429-456, December.
    17. Aikman, David & Haldane, Andrew & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kapadia, Sujit, 2018. "Rethinking financial stability," Bank of England working papers 712, Bank of England.
    18. Andrea Flori & Simone Giansante & Claudia Girardone & Fabio Pammolli, 2021. "Banks’ business strategies on the edge of distress," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 481-530, April.
    19. Xi Yang & Michael Brei, 2019. "The universal bank model: Synergy or vulnerability?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 312-327, December.
    20. Tatiana Gaelle Yongoua Tchikanda, 2017. "Systemic risk and individual risk: A trade-off?," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    leverage ratio; risk-weighted capital ratio; bank failure; CAMELS; Logit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2016-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valerie Mignon The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Valerie Mignon to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/modemfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.