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Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio

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  • Xi Yang

Abstract

This paper investigates the efficiency of leverage ratios and risk-weighted capital ratios as bank failure predictors during the global financial crisis. Analyzing 417 bank failures between 2008 and 2012, we find that the predictive power of different capital ratios is not homogeneous across banks. The simple leverage ratio outperforms the risk-weighted ratio in predicting failures of large banks, while both capital ratios are important in predicting the failure of smaller banks. The better performance of the leverage ratio in the case of large banks is especially important during the crisis period of 2008-2010. The findings support the regulatory reforms proposed by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision on the adoption of a supplementary minimum leverage ratio in order to strengthen the resilience of the bank sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2016-15
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Noel, Dennison, 2022. "The effects of macroprudential policy on banks' profitability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Noel, Dennison, 2020. "The bank capital-competition-risk nexus – A global perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. E Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim & Dennison Noel, 2020. "The Effects of Macroprudential Policy on Banks' Profitability," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 514, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. E Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim & Dennison Noel, 2019. "Bank Leverage Ratios, Risk and Competition - An Investigation Using Individual Bank Data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 499, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Davis, E Philip & Ali Abdilahi, Ridwa, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Bank Profitability in Three Major African Counties: Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 536, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    leverage ratio; risk-weighted capital ratio; bank failure; CAMELS; Logit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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