IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-04141595.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio

Author

Listed:
  • Xi Yang

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper investigates the efficiency of leverage ratios and risk-weighted capital ratios as bank failure predictors during the global financial crisis. Analyzing 417 bank failures between 2008 and 2012, we find that the predictive power of different capital ratios is not homogeneous across banks. The simple leverage ratio outperforms the risk-weighted ratio in predicting failures of large banks, while both capital ratios are important in predicting the failure of smaller banks. The better performance of the leverage ratio in the case of large banks is especially important during the crisis period of 2008-2010. The findings support the regulatory reforms proposed by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision on the adoption of a supplementary minimum leverage ratio in order to strengthen the resilience of the bank sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," Working Papers hal-04141595, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141595
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141595
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04141595/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache & Ouarda Merrouche, 2013. "Bank Capital: Lessons from the Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1147-1164, September.
    2. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    3. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    4. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    5. Mariathasan, Mike & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2014. "The manipulation of basel risk-weights," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 300-321.
    6. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," Working Papers wp2008_0809, CEMFI.
    7. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2008. "Are Bank Holding Companies a Source of Strength to Their Banking Subsidiaries?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 273-294, March.
    8. Vincent Bouvatier & Michael Brei & Xi Yang, 2014. "Bank Failures and the Source of Strength Doctrine," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Caroline Roulet, 2013. "Business models of banks, leverage and the distance-to-default," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(2), pages 7-34.
    10. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    11. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
    12. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry & Ma, Kebin, 2013. "How does corporate governance affect bank capitalization strategies ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6636, The World Bank.
    13. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
    14. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    15. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    16. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2008. "Are Bank Holding Companies a Source of Strength to Their Banking Subsidiaries?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 273-294, March.
    17. Michel Aglietta & Laurence Scialom, 2010. "A Systemic Approach to Financial Regulation: a European Perspective," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 123, pages 31-65.
    18. repec:ces:ifodic:v:8:y:2010:i:2:p:14566986 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Li, Lei, 2013. "TARP funds distribution and bank loan supply," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4777-4792.
    20. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Li, Lei & Tehranian, Hassan, 2013. "The performance of banks around the receipt and repayment of TARP funds: Over-achievers versus under-achievers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 730-746.
    21. repec:erf:erfstu:78 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Dermine, Jean, 2015. "Basel III leverage ratio requirement and the probability of bank runs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 266-277.
    23. Martin Hellwig, 2010. "Capital Regulation after the Crisis: Business as Usual?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(02), pages 40-46, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Croci, Ettore & Hertig, Gerard & Nowak, Eric, 2016. "Decision-making during the credit crisis: Did the Treasury let commercial banks fail?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 476-497.
    3. Chiaramonte, Laura & Croci, Ettore & Poli, Federica, 2015. "Should we trust the Z-score? Evidence from the European Banking Industry," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 111-131.
    4. Giulio Velliscig & Josanco Floreani & Maurizio Polato, 2023. "Capital and asset quality implications for bank resilience and performance in the light of NPLs’ regulation: a focus on the Texas ratio," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 66-88, March.
    5. Huang, Qiubin & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2020. "Does bank capitalization matter for bank stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Stelios Markoulis & Panagiotis Ioannou & Spiros Martzoukos, 2023. "Bank distress in the European Union 2008–2015: A closer look at capital, size and revenue diversification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 792-820, January.
    7. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Molyneux, Philip, 2020. "Beyond common equity: The influence of secondary capital on bank insolvency risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    8. Vincent Bouvatier & Michael Brei & Xi Yang, 2014. "Bank Failures and the Source of Strength Doctrine," Working Papers hal-04141351, HAL.
    9. Rainer Baule & Christian Tallau, 2016. "Revisiting Basel risk weights: cross-sectional risk sensitivity and cyclicality," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(8), pages 905-931, November.
    10. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
    11. Chernykh, Lucy & Cole, Rebel A., 2015. "How should we measure bank capital adequacy for triggering Prompt Corrective Action? A (simple) proposal," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 131-143.
    12. Allen N. Berger & Björn Imbierowicz & Christian Rauch, 2016. "The Roles of Corporate Governance in Bank Failures during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 729-770, June.
    13. Viral V Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2021. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4090-4131.
    14. Viral V. Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2023. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_446, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    15. Berger, Allen N. & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, 2021. "Banking research in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Giovanni Ferri & Marco Savioli, 2022. "Regulatory reform and banking diversity: reassessing Basel 3," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 429-456, December.
    17. Assaf, A. George & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A. & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Does efficiency help banks survive and thrive during financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 445-470.
    18. Aikman, David & Haldane, Andrew & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kapadia, Sujit, 2018. "Rethinking financial stability," Bank of England working papers 712, Bank of England.
    19. Andrea Flori & Simone Giansante & Claudia Girardone & Fabio Pammolli, 2021. "Banks’ business strategies on the edge of distress," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 481-530, April.
    20. Behr, Patrick & Wang, Weichao, 2020. "The (un)intended effects of government bailouts: The impact of TARP on the interbank market and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.