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Towards the Terminator Economy: Assessing Job Exposure to AI through LLMs

Author

Listed:
  • Emilio Colombo
  • Fabio Mercorio
  • Mario Mezzanzanica
  • Antonio Serino

Abstract

There is no doubt that AI and AI-related technologies are reshaping jobs and related tasks, either by automating or by augmenting human skills in the workplace. Many researchers have tried to estimate if, and to what extent, jobs and tasks are exposed to the risk of being automatized by state-of-the-art AI-related technologies. Our work tackles this issue through a data-driven approach: (i) developing a reproducible framework that uses several open-source large language models to assess the current capabilities of AI and robotics in performing work-related tasks; (ii) formalising and computing a measure of AI exposure by occupation, namely the TEAI (Task Exposure to AI) index. Our TEAI index is positively correlated with cognitive, problem-solving and management skills, while is negatively correlated with social skills. Our results show that about one-third of U.S. employment is highly exposed to AI, primarily in high-skill jobs, requiring graduate or postgraduate level of education. Using 4-year rolling regressions, we also find that AI exposure is positively associated with both employment and wage growth in the period 2003-2023, suggesting that AI has an overall positive effect on productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Colombo & Fabio Mercorio & Mario Mezzanzanica & Antonio Serino, 2024. "Towards the Terminator Economy: Assessing Job Exposure to AI through LLMs," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2401, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
  • Handle: RePEc:dis:wpaper:dis2401
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O36 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Open Innovation

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