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Labor Market Exposure to AI: Cross-country Differences and Distributional Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Carlo Pizzinelli
  • Augustus J Panton
  • Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
  • Mauro Cazzaniga
  • Longji Li

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on labor markets in both Advanced Economies (AEs) and Emerging Markets (EMs). We propose an extension to a standard measure of AI exposure, accounting for AI's potential as either a complement or a substitute for labor, where complementarity reflects lower risks of job displacement. We analyze worker-level microdata from 2 AEs (US and UK) and 4 EMs (Brazil, Colombia, India, and South Africa), revealing substantial variations in unadjusted AI exposure across countries. AEs face higher exposure than EMs due to a higher employment share in professional and managerial occupations. However, when accounting for potential complementarity, differences in exposure across countries are more muted. Within countries, common patterns emerge in AEs and EMs. Women and highly educated workers face greater occupational exposure to AI, at both high and low complementarity. Workers in the upper tail of the earnings distribution are more likely to be in occupations with high exposure but also high potential complementarity.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Pizzinelli & Augustus J Panton & Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares & Mauro Cazzaniga & Longji Li, 2023. "Labor Market Exposure to AI: Cross-country Differences and Distributional Implications," IMF Working Papers 2023/216, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/216
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. García-Suaza, Andrés & Sarango Iturralde, Alexander & Caiza-Guamán, Pamela & Gil Díaz, Mateo & Acosta Castillo, Dana, 2025. "Unequal Impacts of AI on Colombia's Labor Market: An Analysis of AI Exposure, Wages, and Job Dynamics," Working papers 113, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    2. Matthias Oschinski & Christian Spielmann & Sonali Subbu-Rathinam, 2025. "AI and the future of work for economists: rethinking economics education," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 25/788, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Emilio Colombo & Fabio Mercorio & Mario Mezzanzanica & Antonio Serino, 2024. "Towards the Terminator Economy: Assessing Job Exposure to AI through LLMs," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2401, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    4. Demombynes, Gabriel & Langbein, Jorg Gero & Weber, Michael, 2025. "The Exposure of Workers to Artificial Intelligence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11057, The World Bank.
    5. Antonio Dalla Zuanna & Davide Dottori & Elena Gentili & Salvatore Lattanzio, 2024. "An assessment of occupational exposure to artificial intelligence in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 878, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Hui Liang & Jingbo Fan & Yunhan Wang, 2025. "Artificial Intelligence, Technological Innovation, and Employment Transformation for Sustainable Development: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-28, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; Employment; Occupations; Emerging Markets; impact of artificial intelligence; exposure to AI; labor market exposure; employment share; educated worker; Labor markets;
    All these keywords.

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