An assessment of occupational exposure to artificial intelligence in Italy

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a general-purpose technology with broad applicability across domains and economic sectors, which is expected to have a significant impact on the labour market in the coming years. We review some of the most recent measurements of labour market exposure to AI in advanced economies and then assess the implications for the Italian labour market. We find that occupations that are more exposed to AI, i.e. more at risk of being complemented or substituted by it, are in the top two quintiles of the income distribution, mostly in the service sector, and employ a large share of women and of highly-skilled workers. Substitutable workers are more protected from the risk of job displacement as they are less likely to be self-employed or on fixed-term contracts. Current patterns of job-to-job mobility show high degrees of persistence within occupation types. We provide indicative evidence that moving out of the most exposed and substitutable occupations might be difficult and costly in terms of wage, especially when movements are towards less exposed occupations.