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The Rise and Fall of Local Elections in China: Theory and Empirical Evidence on the Autocrat's Trade-off

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  • Qian, Nancy
  • Martinez-Bravo, Monica
  • Padró i Miquel, Gerard
  • Yao, Yan

Abstract

We propose a simple informational theory to explain why autocratic regimes introduce local elections. Because citizens have better information on local officials than the distant central government, delegation of authority via local elections improves selection and performance of local officials. However, local officials under elections have no incentive to implement unpopular centrally mandated policies. The model makes several predictions: i) elections pose a trade-off between performance and vertical control; ii) elections improve the selection of officials; and iii) an increase in bureaucratic capacity reduces the desirability of elections for the autocrat. To test (i) and (ii), we collect a large village-level panel dataset from rural China. Consistent with the model, we find that elections improve (weaken) the implementation of popular (unpopular) policies, and improve official selection. We provide a large body of qualitative and descriptive evidence to support (iii). In doing so, we shed light on why the Chinese government has systematically undermined village governments twenty years after they were introduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian, Nancy & Martinez-Bravo, Monica & Padró i Miquel, Gerard & Yao, Yan, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Local Elections in China: Theory and Empirical Evidence on the Autocrat's Trade-off," CEPR Discussion Papers 12439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12439
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ding, Yanqing & Lu, Fengming & Ye, Xiaoyang, 2020. "Intergovernmental transfer under heterogeneous accountabilities: The effects of the 2006 Chinese Education Finance Reform," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
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    6. Beath, Andrew & Christia, Fotini & Enikolopov, Ruben, 2013. "Do elected councils improve governance ? experimental evidence on local institutions in Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6510, The World Bank.
    7. Ananyev, Maxim & Poyker, Michael, 2022. "Do dictators signal strength with electoral fraud?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Pan, Yao & You, Jing, 2020. "Successful Social Programs over Local Political Cycles," MPRA Paper 98968, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political economy; Economic development;

    JEL classification:

    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • P3 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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