IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/poleco/v71y2022ics0176268021000665.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do dictators signal strength with electoral fraud?

Author

Listed:
  • Ananyev, Maxim
  • Poyker, Michael

Abstract

What role does electoral fraud play in nondemocracies? In this paper, we offer an empirical test of a popular idea that authoritarian governments use elections to engineer overwhelming victories with electoral fraud thus deterring potential opposition from challenging the regime. Using the data from the Russian Parliamentary elections in 2011 and a regionally representative public opinion survey, we find that the geographical allocation of electoral manipulation was the opposite of what the theory would imply: more manipulation happened in the areas where the regime was more popular. We also find that higher margins of victory for a pro-regime party failed to deter subsequent mass protests. We argue that these empirical patterns could be better explained by other mechanisms, such as Bayesian persuasion, efficient allocation, and information gathering.

Suggested Citation

  • Ananyev, Maxim & Poyker, Michael, 2022. "Do dictators signal strength with electoral fraud?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:71:y:2022:i:c:s0176268021000665
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268021000665
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102075?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deckert, Joseph & Myagkov, Mikhail & Ordeshook, Peter C., 2011. "Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 245-268, July.
    2. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2019. "Informational Autocrats," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 100-127, Fall.
    3. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2015. "How Modern Dictators Survive: Cooptation, Censorship, Propaganda, and Repression," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03473701, HAL.
    4. Joseph Price & Justin Wolfers, 2010. "Racial Discrimination Among NBA Referees," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1859-1887.
    5. Medzihorsky, Juraj, 2015. "Election Fraud: A Latent Class Framework for Digit-Based Tests," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 506-517.
    6. Max Bader & Carolien van Ham, 2015. "What explains regional variation in election fraud? Evidence from Russia: a research note," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 514-528, November.
    7. Voth, Hans-Joachim & Voigtländer, Nico, 2014. "Highway To Hitler," CEPR Discussion Papers 9983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Simpser,Alberto, 2013. "Why Governments and Parties Manipulate Elections," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107030541, October.
    9. Isaías Chaves & Leopoldo Fergusson & James A. Robinson, 2015. "He Who Counts Elects: Economic Elites, Political Elites, and Electoral Fraud," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 124-159, March.
    10. Dmitriy Vorobyev, 2011. "Towards Detecting and Measuring Ballot Stuffing," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp447, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    11. Oka, Natsuko, 2009. "Ethnicity and Elections under Authoritarianism: The Case of Kazakhstan," IDE Discussion Papers 194, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4mupcmg7bt8iv8k3lhvbqr8p51 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Qian, Nancy & Martinez-Bravo, Monica & Padró i Miquel, Gerard & Yao, Yan, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Local Elections in China: Theory and Empirical Evidence on the Autocrat's Trade-off," CEPR Discussion Papers 12439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Gandhi,Jennifer, 2008. "Political Institutions under Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521897952, October.
    15. Svolik, Milan W., 2020. "When Polarization Trumps Civic Virtue: Partisan Conflict and the Subversion of Democracy by Incumbents," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 15(1), pages 3-31, January.
    16. Lorentzen, Peter L., 2013. "Regularizing Rioting: Permitting Public Protest in an Authoritarian Regime," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 8(2), pages 127-158, February.
    17. Frye, Timothy & Reuter, Ora John & Szakonyi, David, 2019. "Hitting Them With Carrots: Voter Intimidation and Vote Buying in Russia," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 857-881, July.
    18. Frye, Timothy & Reuter, Ora John & Szakonyi, David, 2019. "Hitting Them With Carrots: Voter Intimidation and Vote Buying in Russia – CORRIGENDUM," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 882-882, July.
    19. James D. Fearon, 2011. "Self-Enforcing Democracy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1661-1708.
    20. Sergei Guriev & Nikita Melnikov, 2016. "War, Inflation, and Social Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 230-235, May.
    21. Ruben Enikolopov & Alexey Makarin & Maria Petrova, 2020. "Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence From Russia," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1479-1514, July.
    22. Asunka, Joseph & Brierley, Sarah & Golden, Miriam & Kramon, Eric & Ofosu, George, 2019. "Electoral Fraud or Violence: The Effect of Observers on Party Manipulation Strategies," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 129-151, January.
    23. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2015. "How Modern Dictators Survive: An Informational Theory of the New Authoritarianism," NBER Working Papers 21136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Egorov, Georgy & Guriev, Sergei & Sonin, Konstantin, 2009. "Why Resource-poor Dictators Allow Freer Media: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 645-668, November.
    25. Heron, Randall A. & Lie, Erik, 2007. "Does backdating explain the stock price pattern around executive stock option grants?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 271-295, February.
    26. Luo, Zhaotian & Rozenas, Arturas, 2018. "Strategies of Election Rigging: Trade-Offs, Determinants, and Consequences," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 13(1), pages 1-28, March.
    27. Porter, Robert H & Zona, J Douglas, 1993. "Detection of Bid Rigging in Procurement Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 518-538, June.
    28. Scott Gehlbach & Alberto Simpser, 2015. "Electoral Manipulation as Bureaucratic Control," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(1), pages 212-224, January.
    29. Rodion Skovoroda & Tomila Lankina, 2017. "Fabricating votes for Putin: new tests of fraud and electoral manipulations from Russia," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 100-123, March.
    30. Rozenas, Arturas, 2017. "Detecting Election Fraud from Irregularities in Vote-Share Distributions," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 41-56, January.
    31. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2021. "Elections in Non-Democracies," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1682-1716.
    32. Malesky, Edmund & Schuler, Paul, 2010. "Nodding or Needling: Analyzing Delegate Responsiveness in an Authoritarian Parliament," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 482-502, August.
    33. Rundlett, Ashlea & Svolik, Milan W., 2016. "Deliver the Vote! Micromotives and Macrobehavior in Electoral Fraud," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 180-197, February.
    34. Little, Andrew T., 2015. "Fraud and Monitoring in Non-competitive Elections," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 21-41, January.
    35. Michael Spence, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2019. "Informational Autocrats," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 100-127, Fall.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew T Little, 2017. "Are non-competitive elections good for citizens?," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(2), pages 214-242, April.
    2. Guriev, Sergei & Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "A theory of informational autocracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Koenig, Christoph, 2019. "Patronage and Election Fraud: Insights from Russia’s Governors 2000–2012," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 433, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Hao Hong & Tsz-Ning Wong, 2020. "Authoritarian election as an incentive scheme," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(3), pages 460-493, July.
    5. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2024. "The Political Economics of Non-democracy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 594-636, June.
    6. Frye, Timothy & Borisova, Ekaterina, 2016. "Elections, protest and trust in government: A natural experiment from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2016_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Michael Rochlitz & Evgeniya Mitrokhina & Irina Nizovkina, 2020. "Bureaucratic Discrimination in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes: Experimental Evidence from Russia," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2010, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    9. Oleg Sidorkin & Dmitriy Vorobyev, 2020. "Extra votes to signal loyalty: regional political cycles and national elections in Russia," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 183-213, October.
    10. Edmond, Chris & Lu, Yang K., 2021. "Creating confusion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Frye, Timothy & Borisova, Ekaterina, 2016. "Elections, protest and trust in government: A natural experiment from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. David Szakonyi & Ora John Reuter, 2020. "Electoral Manipulation and Regime Support: Survey Evidence from Russia," Working Papers 2020-19, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    13. Sonin, Konstantin & Egorov, Georgy, 2014. "Incumbency Advantage in Non-Democracies," CEPR Discussion Papers 10178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Vadim S. Balashov & Yuxing Yan & Xiaodi Zhu, 2020. "Who Manipulates Data During Pandemics? Evidence from Newcomb-Benford Law," Papers 2007.14841, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    15. David Szakonyi, 2020. "Candidate Filtering: The Strategic Use of Electoral Fraud in Russia," Working Papers 2020-23, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    16. Michael K Miller, 2013. "Electoral authoritarianism and democracy: A formal model of regime transitions," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 25(2), pages 153-181, April.
    17. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    18. Casas, Agustín & Díaz, Guillermo & Trindade, André, 2017. "Who monitors the monitor? Effect of party observers on electoral outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 136-149.
    19. Mariam Mufti, 2018. "What Do We Know about Hybrid Regimes after Two Decades of Scholarship?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(2), pages 112-119.
    20. Xinyu Fan & Feng Yang, 2019. "Strategic promotion, reputation, and responsiveness in bureaucratic hierarchies," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 31(3), pages 286-307, July.
    21. Chris Edmond & Yang K Lu, 2018. "Creating Confusion "Abstract: We develop a model in which a politician seeks to prevent people from making informed decisions. The politician can manipulate information at a cost, but cannot comm," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2043, The University of Melbourne.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:71:y:2022:i:c:s0176268021000665. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.