IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03878640.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Informational Autocrats

Author

Listed:
  • Sergei Guriev

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Daniel Treisman

    (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

In recent decades, dictatorships based on mass repression have largely given way to a new model based on the manipulation of information. Instead of terrorizing citizens into submission, "informational autocrats" artificially boost their popularity by convincing the public they are competent. To do so, they use propaganda and silence informed members of the elite by co-optation or censorship. Using several sources, including a newly created dataset on authoritarian control techniques, we document a range of trends in recent autocracies consistent with this new model: a decline in violence, efforts to conceal state repression, rejection of official ideologies, imitation of democracy, a perceptions gap between the masses and the elite, and the adoption by leaders of a rhetoric of performance rather than one aimed at inspiring fear.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2019. "Informational Autocrats," Post-Print hal-03878640, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03878640
    DOI: 10.1257/jep.33.4.100
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03878640
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03878640/document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/jep.33.4.100?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pál Susánszky & Ákos Kopper & Frank T. Zsigó, 2022. "Media framing of political protests – reporting bias and the discrediting of political activism," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 312-328, July.
    2. Charles H. Anderton & Jurgen Brauer, 2021. "Mass Atrocities and Their Prevention," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1240-1292, December.
    3. Boix, Carles & Svolik, Milan, 2009. "The Foundations of Limited Authoritarian Government: Institutions and Power-Sharing in Dictatorships," Papers 10-21-2009b, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
    4. Grimmer, Justin & Stewart, Brandon M., 2013. "Text as Data: The Promise and Pitfalls of Automatic Content Analysis Methods for Political Texts," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 267-297, July.
    5. Maxim Alyukov, 2022. "Propaganda, authoritarianism and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 763-765, June.
    6. Stephen L. Parente & Luis Felipe Sáenz & Anna Seim, 2022. "Income, education and democracy," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 193-233, June.
    7. Becker, Sascha O. & Mukand, Sharun & Yotzov, Ivan, 2022. "Persecution, pogroms and genocide: A conceptual framework and new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Mario F. Carillo, 2022. "Fascistville: Mussolini’s new towns and the persistence of neo-fascism," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 527-567, December.
    9. Choy, James P., 2020. "Kompromat: A theory of blackmail as a system of governance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Scott Radnitz, 2022. "Perceived threats and the trade-off between security and human rights," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 367-381, May.
    11. Simpser,Alberto, 2013. "Why Governments and Parties Manipulate Elections," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107030541, September.
    12. Aytaç, Selim Erdem, 2021. "Effectiveness of Incumbent’s Strategic Communication during Economic Crisis under Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence from Turkey," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1517-1523, November.
    13. Farrell, Henry & Newman, Abraham L., 2021. "The Janus Face of the Liberal International Information Order: When Global Institutions Are Self-Undermining," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 333-358, February.
    14. Beazer, Quintin H. & Crabtree, Charles D. & Fariss, Christopher J. & Kern, Holger L., 2022. "When Do Private Actors Engage in Censorship? Evidence From a Correspondence Experiment with Russian Private Media Firms," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1790-1809, October.
    15. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    16. Guriev, Sergei & Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "A theory of informational autocracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    17. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, September.
    18. North, Douglass C. & Weingast, Barry R., 1989. "Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 803-832, December.
    19. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2020. "The Popularity of Authoritarian Leaders: A cross-national investigation," Post-Print hal-03878626, HAL.
    20. Tom Paskhalis & Bryn Rosenfeld & Katerina Tertytchnaya, 2022. "Independent media under pressure: evidence from Russia," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 155-174, May.
    21. Timothy Frye & Brian D. Taylor & Will Pyle & Klaus Segbers & Gulnaz Sharafutdinovae, 2021. "Roundtable on Gulnaz Sharafutdinova’s the red mirror: putin’s leadership and russia’s insecure identity," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 404-412, July.
    22. Stukal, Denis & Sanovich, Sergey & Bonneau, Richard & Tucker, Joshua A., 2022. "Why Botter: How Pro-Government Bots Fight Opposition in Russia," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(3), pages 843-857, August.
    23. Bei Qin & David Strömberg & Yanhui Wu, 2017. "Why Does China Allow Freer Social Media? Protests versus Surveillance and Propaganda," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 117-140, Winter.
    24. Voth, Hans-Joachim & Adena, Maja & Enikolopov, Ruben & Petrova, Maria, 2020. "Bombs, Broadcasts and Resistance: Allied Intervention and Domestic Opposition to the Nazi Regime during World War II," CEPR Discussion Papers 15292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Giray Gozgor, 2022. "The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 229-246, January.
    26. Belmonte, Alessandro & Rochlitz, Michael, 2020. "Collective memories, propaganda and authoritarian political support," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    27. Maria Snegovaya, 2020. "Guns to butter: sociotropic concerns and foreign policy preferences in Russia," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 268-279, May.
    28. Raphael Boleslavsky & Mehdi Shadmehr & Konstantin Sonin, 2021. "Media Freedom in the Shadow of a Coup," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1782-1815.
    29. Lin, Thung-Hong & Chang, Min-Chiao & Chang, Chun-Chih & Chou, Ya-Hsuan, 2022. "Government-sponsored disinformation and the severity of respiratory infection epidemics including COVID-19: A global analysis, 2001–2020," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    30. Lamberova, Natalia, 2021. "The puzzling politics of R&D: Signaling competence through risky projects," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 801-818.
    31. Cantoni Davide, 2020. "China und Hongkong am Scheideweg," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 185-196, June.
    32. Marino, Maria & Donni, Paolo Li & Bavetta, Sebastiano & Cellini, Marco, 2020. "The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    33. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2021. "Elections in Non-Democracies," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1682-1716.
    34. King, Gary & Pan, Jennifer & Roberts, Margaret E., 2013. "How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 326-343, May.
    35. Gehlbach, Scott & Keefer, Philip, 2011. "Investment without democracy: Ruling-party institutionalization and credible commitment in autocracies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 123-139, June.
    36. Sonin, Konstantin & Egorov, Georgy, 2019. "Persuasion on Networks," CEPR Discussion Papers 13723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Egorov, Georgy & Guriev, Sergei & Sonin, Konstantin, 2009. "Why Resource-poor Dictators Allow Freer Media: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 645-668, November.
    38. Prat, Andrea & Angelucci, Charles, 2020. "Measuring Voters' Knowledge of Political News," CEPR Discussion Papers 15222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Janet Elise Johnson & Alexandra Novitskaya & Valerie Sperling & Lisa McIntosh Sundstrom, 2021. "Mixed signals: what Putin says about gender equality," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 507-525, November.
    40. Bryan James Nakayama, 2022. "Information vs the cyberspace domain," Journal of Cyber Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 213-229, May.
    41. Ceren Baysan, 2022. "Persistent Polarizing Effects of Persuasion: Experimental Evidence from Turkey," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3528-3546, November.
    42. Ihsan Yilmaz & Omer F. Erturk, 2021. "Populism, violence and authoritarian stability: necropolitics in Turkey," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 1524-1543, July.
    43. Alberto Batinti & Jeffrey Kopstein, 2022. "Is Russia really a normal country? A numerical taxonomy of Russia in comparative perspective," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 217-232, June.
    44. Ananyev, Maxim & Poyker, Michael, 2022. "Do dictators signal strength with electoral fraud?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guriev, Sergei & Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "A theory of informational autocracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    2. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2024. "The Political Economics of Non-democracy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 594-636, June.
    3. Michael K Miller, 2013. "Electoral authoritarianism and democracy: A formal model of regime transitions," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 25(2), pages 153-181, April.
    4. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2015. "How Modern Dictators Survive: An Informational Theory of the New Authoritarianism," NBER Working Papers 21136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2015. "How Modern Dictators Survive: Cooptation, Censorship, Propaganda, and Repression," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03473701, HAL.
    6. Li, Yuan & Gilli, Mario, 2014. "Accountability in Autocracies: The Role of Revolution Threat," Stockholm School of Economics Asia Working Paper Series 2014-30, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm China Economic Research Institute, revised 06 Mar 2014.
    7. Sonin, Konstantin & Egorov, Georgy, 2014. "Incumbency Advantage in Non-Democracies," CEPR Discussion Papers 10178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Michael Albertus & Victor Gay, 2017. "Unlikely Democrats: Economic Elite Uncertainty under Dictatorship and Support for Democratization," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(3), pages 624-641, July.
    9. Michael Albertus & Victor Gay, 2019. "No better time than now: Future uncertainty and private investment under dictatorship," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96, March.
    10. Israel Marques, 2014. "Firms And Social Policy In The Post-Communist Bloc: Evidence From Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 87/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Anne Meng, 2019. "Accessing the state: Executive constraints and credible commitment in dictatorship," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 31(4), pages 568-599, October.
    12. Andrew T Little, 2017. "Are non-competitive elections good for citizens?," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(2), pages 214-242, April.
    13. Mario, Gilli & Yuan, Li, 2018. "Transitions and Political Stability in Autocracies. The Role of Public Perception," Working Papers 383, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 13 Jul 2018.
    14. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina, 2020. "Facebook Causes Protests," HiCN Working Papers 323, Households in Conflict Network.
    15. Shadmehr, Mehdi & Bernhardt, Dan, 2011. "Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs: Coordination, Public Signals, and Punishment Dilemmas," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 829-851, November.
    16. Jack Paine, 2024. "A comment on Powell and formal models of power sharing ," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 36(2), pages 212-233, April.
    17. Gehlbach, Scott & Keefer, Philip, 2011. "Investment without democracy: Ruling-party institutionalization and credible commitment in autocracies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 123-139, June.
    18. Marques II, Israel, 2018. "Firms and social policy preferences under weak institutions : Evidence from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    19. Maria Petrova & Robert H. Bates, 2012. "Evolution of Risk and Political Regimes," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 200-225, July.
    20. Bjørnskov, Christian & Freytag, Andreas & Gutmann, Jerg, 2022. "Coups and the dynamics of media freedom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03878640. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.