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Media Freedom in the Shadow of a Coup

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  • Sonin, Konstantin
  • Boleslavsky, Ralph
  • Shadmehr, Mehdi

Abstract

Popular protests and palace coups are the two domestic threats to dictators. We show that free media, which informs citizens about their rulers, is a double-edged sword that alleviates one threat, but exacerbates the other. Informed citizens may protest against a ruler, but they may also protest to restore him after a palace coup. In choosing media freedom, the leader trades off these conflicting effects. We develop a model in which citizens engage in a regime change global game, and media freedom is a ruler's instrument for Bayesian persuasion, used to manage the competing risks of coups and protests. A coup switches the status quo from being in the ruler's favor to being against him. This introduces convexities in the ruler's Bayesian persuasion problem, causing him to benefi t from an informed citizenry. Rulers tolerate freer press when citizens are pessimistic about them, or coups signal information about them to citizens.

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  • Sonin, Konstantin & Boleslavsky, Ralph & Shadmehr, Mehdi, 2018. "Media Freedom in the Shadow of a Coup," CEPR Discussion Papers 13189, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13189
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2019. "Informational Autocrats," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03878640, HAL.
    2. Kemal Kivanc Akoz & Arseniy Samsonov, 2023. "Bargaining over information structures," Discussion Papers 2301, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Quantitative Social and Management Sciences.
    3. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2019. "Informational Autocrats," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 100-127, Fall.
    4. Bjørnskov, Christian & Freytag, Andreas & Gutmann, Jerg, 2022. "Coups and the dynamics of media freedom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Authoritarian politics; Media freedom; Protest; Coup; Global games; Bayesian persuasion; Signaling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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