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Determinants and projections of demand for higher education in Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Vieira

    () (Departamento de Economia, CEFAGE-UE, Universidade de Évora)

  • Isabel Vieira

    () (Departamento de Economia, CEFAGE-UE, Universidade de Évora)

Abstract

This paper formulates a model of demand for higher education in Portugal considering a wide range of demographic, economic, social and institutional explanatory variables. The estimation results suggest that the number of applicants reacts positively to demographic trends, graduation rates at secondary education, female participation, compulsory schooling and the recent Bologna process. Demand reacts negatively to the existence of tuition fees and to unemployment rates. Within an adverse demographic and economic context, forecasts of demand for the next two decades suggest the need to increase participation rates, to avoid funding problems in the higher education system and increase long-term economic development prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Vieira & Isabel Vieira, 2011. "Determinants and projections of demand for higher education in Portugal," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2011_15, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2011_15
    as

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    File URL: http://www.cefage.uevora.pt/en/content/download/2696/36166/version/1/file/2011_15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Ana Rute Cardoso, 2008. "Demand for Higher Education Programs: The Impact of the Bologna Process," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 54(2), pages 229-247, June.
    3. Christofides, Louis N. & Hoy, Michael & Yang, Ling, 2010. "Participation in Canadian Universities: The gender imbalance (1977-2005)," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 400-410, June.
    4. Blaug, Mark, 1976. "The Empirical Status of Human Capital Theory: A Slightly Jaundiced Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 827-855, September.
    5. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Lucifora, Claudio, 2009. "The "Bologna Process" and college enrollment decisions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 638-647, December.
    6. Wetzel, James & O'Toole, Dennis & Peterson, Steven, 1998. "An Analysis of Student Enrollment Demand," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 47-54, February.
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    8. Carla Sa & Raymond Florax & Piet Rietveld, 2004. "Determinants of the Regional Demand for Higher Education in The Netherlands: A Gravity Model Approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 375-392.
    9. Louis N. Christofides & Michael Hoy & Ling Yang, 2008. "The Determinants of University Participation in Canada (1977-2003)," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 4-2008, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    10. Duchesne, I. & Nonneman, W., 1998. "The Demand for Higher Education in Belgium," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 211-218, April.
    11. Christou, Costas & Haliassos, Michael, 2006. "How do students finance human capital accumulation?: The choice between borrowing and work," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 39-51, January.
    12. Galper, Harvey & Dunn, Robert M, Jr, 1969. "A Short-Run Demand Function for Higher Education in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 765-777, Sept./Oct.
    13. McPherson, Michael S & Schapiro, Morton Owen, 1991. "Does Student Aid Affect College Enrollment? New Evidence on a Persistent Controversy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 309-318, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand for higher education; determinants of university participation; applications forecasting.;

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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