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Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-Linear Factor Approach

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Burcu Erdogan
  • Vladimir Kuzin

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including Euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2845.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2845
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  1. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
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  11. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  12. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  13. Adjaoute, Kpate & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "EMU and Portfolio Diversification Opportunities," CEPR Discussion Papers 2962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Chen, Zhiwu & Knez, Peter J, 1995. "Measurement of Market Integration and Arbitrage," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 287-325.
  15. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2008. "Analysing Convergence in Europe Using a Non-linear Single Factor Model," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200802, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  16. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
  17. Hardouvelis, Gikas A. & Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 2007. "The impact of EMU on the equity cost of capital," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 305-327, March.
  18. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, 07.
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