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Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

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  • Guglielmo Caporale
  • Burcu Erdogan
  • Vladimir Kuzin

Abstract

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007 ) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998 ) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007 ), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Caporale & Burcu Erdogan & Vladimir Kuzin, 2015. "Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 481-498, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:42:y:2015:i:3:p:481-498
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-014-9259-x
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    Cited by:

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    3. Eleonora Cavallaro & Ilaria Villani, 2023. "Financial asymmetries, risk sharing and growth in the EU," Working Papers 2023.12, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Kefei You, 2017. "Stock Market Integration in Asia: Global or Regional? Evidence from Industry Level Panel Convergence Tests," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1669, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Sema Bayraktar & Thomas C. Chiang, 2017. "Comovements of Stock Markets between Turkey and Global Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 250-275, June.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & You, Kefei & Chen, Lei, 2019. "Global and regional stock market integration in Asia: A panel convergence approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2016. "Testing financial markets convergence in Central and Eastern Europe: A non-linear single factor model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 323-334.
    8. Olson, Dennis & Zoubi, Taisier, 2017. "Convergence in bank performance for commercial and Islamic banks during and after the Global Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 71-87.
    9. Fegheh Majidi , Ali & Mohammadi , Ahmad & Nanvay Sabegh , Behnaz, 2017. "An Investigation of Convergence Hypothesis of Price Index in Asian Stock Markets," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 12(1), pages 73-88, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Financial integration; European Monetary Union Convergence; Factor model; C32; C33; G11; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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