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Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-linear Factor Approach

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Burcu Erdogan
  • Vladimir Kuzin

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including Euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.342142.de/dp932.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 932.

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Length: 21 p.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp932
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  1. Campa, Jose Manuel & Fernandes, Nuno, 2006. "Sources of gains from international portfolio diversification," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 417-443, October.
  2. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, 07.
  3. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
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  6. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
  7. Kpate ADJAOUTÉ, & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2000. "EMU and Portfolio Diversification Opportunities," FAME Research Paper Series rp31, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  8. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  9. Chen, Zhiwu & Knez, Peter J, 1995. "Measurement of Market Integration and Arbitrage," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 287-325.
  10. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
  11. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2001. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," NBER Working Papers 8612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1595, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  14. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
  15. Hardouvelis, Gikas A. & Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 2007. "The impact of EMU on the equity cost of capital," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 305-327, March.
  16. Kpate ADJAOUTÉ & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2003. "European Financial Integration and Equity Returns: A Theory-Based Assessment," FAME Research Paper Series rp84, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  17. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2008. "Analysing Convergence in Europe Using a Non-linear Single Factor Model," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200802, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
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