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The Effects of Climate Change on GDP in the 21st Century: Working Paper 2025-02

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  • Chad Shirley
  • William Swanson

Abstract

This working paper provides an estimate of a probability distribution of changes in gross domestic product (GDP) in the year 2100 resulting from changes in temperature. To estimate that distribution, we perform a meta-analysis of the literature on the effects of climate change on GDP and combine those effects with forecast global temperature distributions for the year 2100. We fit Gaussian distributions to the underlying data and numerically estimate the joint distribution of GDP and temperature. Using that distribution, we project that, on average, future temperature

Suggested Citation

  • Chad Shirley & William Swanson, 2025. "The Effects of Climate Change on GDP in the 21st Century: Working Paper 2025-02," Working Papers 61186, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:61186
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-02/61186-Climate-GDP.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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