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On the Social Cost of Orbital Debris

Author

Listed:
  • Aneli Bongers

    (Department of Economics, University of Malaga)

  • Jose L. Torres

    (Department of Economics, University of Malaga)

Abstract

Orbital debris represents a global environmental externality in outer space, akin to terrestrial environmental externalities, imposing a social cost on humanity. Accurately quantifying this social cost is crucial for designing and implementing effective debris mitigation policies. This paper estimates the social cost of orbital debris (SCOD) using a methodology inspired by climate-change economics, particularly the approach used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) through projections derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs). We introduce an IAM that links economic activity with space activity, modeling orbital debris emissions as a function of launches and collisions. The model generates optimal trajectories for orbital debris emissions and consumption, which are then used to estimate the SCOD. Our results indicate that the SCOD is approximately $84,200 per piece of debris larger than 1 cm for the year 2023 (in international US dollars), based on a 1.5% social discount rate and an intertemporal marginal consumption rate of 1.5.

Suggested Citation

  • Aneli Bongers & Jose L. Torres, 2025. "On the Social Cost of Orbital Debris," Space Economics Working Papers 04-2025, Institute for Space Economics, revised Mar 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:bhw:wpaper:04-2025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Orbital debris; Integrated Assessment Models; Social cost of orbital debris.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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