IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2509.03926.html

National social cost of carbon: An application of FUND

Author

Listed:
  • In Chang Hwang
  • Richard S. J. Tol

Abstract

This paper presents a refined country-level integrated assessment model, FUND 3.9n, that extends the regional FUND 3.9 framework by incorporating sector-specific climate impact functions and parametric uncertainty analysis for 198 individual countries. The model enables estimation of the national social cost of carbon (NSCC), capturing heterogeneity across nations from economic structure, climate sensitivity, and population exposure. Our results demonstrate that both the NSCC and the global sum estimates are highly sensitive to damage specifications and preference parameters, including the pure rate of time preference and relative risk aversion. Compared to aggregated single-sector approaches, the disaggregated model with uncertainty yields higher values of the NSCC for low- and middle-income countries. The paper contributes to the literature by quantifying how sector-specific vulnerabilities and stochastic variability amplify climate damages and reshape global equity in the distribution of the NSCC. The NSCCs derived from our model offer policy-relevant metrics for adaptation planning, mitigation target setting, and equitable burden-sharing in international climate negotiations. This approach bridges the gap between globally harmonized carbon pricing and nationally differentiated climate impacts, providing a theoretically grounded and empirically rich framework for future climate policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • In Chang Hwang & Richard S. J. Tol, 2025. "National social cost of carbon: An application of FUND," Papers 2509.03926, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.03926
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.03926
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin L. Weitzman, 2012. "GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(2), pages 221-244, March.
    2. Niklas H�hne & Michel den Elzen & Donovan Escalante, 2014. "Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 122-147, January.
    3. Nordhaus, William D & Yang, Zili, 1996. "A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 741-765, September.
    4. Anubhab Pattanayak & K. S. Kavi Kumar, 2015. "Accounting for impacts due to climate change in GHG mitigation burden sharing," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 724-742, November.
    5. Matthew Adler & David Anthoff & Valentina Bosetti & Greg Garner & Klaus Keller & Nicolas Treich, 2017. "Priority for the worse-off and the social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 443-449, June.
    6. Tol, Richard S.J., 2019. "A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 555-566.
    7. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
    8. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
    9. Derek Lemoine, 2021. "The Climate Risk Premium: How Uncertainty Affects the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 27-57.
    10. William Nordhaus, 2014. "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 000.
    11. Markus Ohndorf & Julia Blasch & Renate Schubert, 2015. "Emission budget approaches for burden sharing: some thoughts from an environmental economics point of view," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 385-395, December.
    12. Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "The Social Cost of Carbon," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 419-443, October.
    13. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    14. Ulrike Kornek & Jan Christoph Steckel & Kai Lessmann & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2017. "The climate rent curse: new challenges for burden sharing," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(6), pages 855-882, December.
    15. Emanuele Campiglio & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2022. "Macrofinancial Risks of the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(2), pages 173-195.
    16. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    17. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 532-536, June.
    18. Martin L. Weitzman, 2014. "Fat Tails and the Social Cost of Carbon," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 544-546, May.
    19. Matthew J. Kotchen, 2018. "Which Social Cost of Carbon? A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 673-694.
    20. Kevin Rennert & Frank Errickson & Brian C. Prest & Lisa Rennels & Richard G. Newell & William Pizer & Cora Kingdon & Jordan Wingenroth & Roger Cooke & Bryan Parthum & David Smith & Kevin Cromar & Dela, 2022. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2," Nature, Nature, vol. 610(7933), pages 687-692, October.
    21. Claire L. Fyson & Susanne Baur & Matthew Gidden & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2020. "Fair-share carbon dioxide removal increases major emitter responsibility," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(9), pages 836-841, September.
    22. Katharine Ricke & Laurent Drouet & Ken Caldeira & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "Author Correction: Country-level social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 567-567, July.
    23. Glenn Sheriff, 2019. "Burden Sharing under the Paris Climate Agreement," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 275-318.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    2. Kornek, Ulrike & Klenert, David & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2021. "The social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    5. Stephen Keen & Timothy M. Lenton & Antoine Godin & Devrim Yilmaz & Matheus Grasselli & Timothy J. Garrett, 2021. "Economists' erroneous estimates of damages from climate change," Papers 2108.07847, arXiv.org.
    6. Zhang, Hong & Jin, Gui & Zhang, Zhengyu, 2021. "Coupling system of carbon emission and social economy: A review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Castellini, Marta & Castelli, Chiara & Gusperti, Camilla & Lupi, Veronica & Vergalli, Sergio, 2025. "Balancing climate policies and economic development in the Mediterranean countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Jin, Gui & Shi, Xin & Zhang, Lei & Hu, Shougeng, 2020. "Measuring the SCCs of different Chinese regions under future scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Richard S. J. Tol, 2020. "Kernel density decomposition with an application to the social cost of carbon," Papers 2003.09276, arXiv.org.
    10. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    11. Matthew Ashenfarb & Matthew J. Kotchen, 2025. "A Method for Deriving Stated Preference Estimates of the Average Social Cost of Carbon," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(8), pages 2059-2083, August.
    12. David Anthoff & Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "Testing the Dismal Theorem," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(5), pages 885-920.
    13. Howard, Peter & Sterner, Thomas, "undated". "Loaded DICE: Refining the Meta-analysis Approach to Calibrating Climate Damage Functions," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169952, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    15. Rogna, Marco & Vogt, Carla J., 2021. "Accounting for inequality aversion can justify the 2° C goal," Ruhr Economic Papers 925, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. Changxin Liu & Hailing Zhang & Zheng Wang, 2019. "Study on the Functional Improvement of Economic Damage Assessment for the Integrated Assessment Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Tol, Richard S.J., 2019. "A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 555-566.
    18. Mier, Mathias & Weissbart, Christoph, 2020. "Power markets in transition: Decarbonization, energy efficiency, and short-term demand response," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    19. Otto, Christian & Schult, Christoph & Vogt, Thomas, 2025. "Climate change economics in Vietnam: Redefining economic impact," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2025, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    20. Daiju Narita & Hans-Otto Poertner & Katrin Rehdanz, 2020. "Accounting for risk transitions of ocean ecosystems under climate change: an economic justification for more ambitious policy responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 1-11, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.03926. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.