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DISE: A Dynamic Integrated Space-Economy Model for Orbital Debris Mitigation Policy Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Anelí Bongers

    (University of Málaga)

  • César Ortiz

    (Thompson Rivers University
    University of Málaga)

  • José L. Torres

    (University of Málaga)

Abstract

This paper presents the Dynamic Integrated Space-Economy (DISE) model, designed to study the economic implications of alternative policies to mitigate orbital debris. The DISE model combines a standard neoclassical growth model with a physical space model for orbital debris dynamics. The economic model categorizes capital assets into two types: Earth’s capital and Space’s capital (i.e., satellites). The orbital debris model describes the dynamic of three types of objects: derelict satellites, rocket bodies, and fragments. DISE is intended to calculate the cost of space debris and its impact on the global economy. The model is simulated for a horizon of 200 years, starting from 2024, under different scenarios, including a clean space environment, laissez-faire, derelict satellites de-orbiting policy, all intact objects de-orbiting policy, debris-free launch systems, a combination of de-orbiting and debris-free launch vehicles, and collision avoidance. We find that the implementation of de-orbiting and debris-free launch systems mitigation policies is not enough to ensure space environmental sustainability, as in the long run the main source of debris generation would be collisions. Without any debris mitigation intervention, the cost of orbital debris would be more than 0.5% of world GDP in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Anelí Bongers & César Ortiz & José L. Torres, 2025. "DISE: A Dynamic Integrated Space-Economy Model for Orbital Debris Mitigation Policy Evaluation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(8), pages 2125-2156, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:88:y:2025:i:8:d:10.1007_s10640-025-01003-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-025-01003-y
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Outer space; Orbital debris; Satellites; Integrated assessment model; Mitigation policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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