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Long term vs. short term comovements in stock markets: the use of Markov-switching multifractal models

  • Idier, J.

Empirical techniques to assess market comovements are numerous from cointegration to dynamic conditional correlations. This paper uses the fractal properties of asset returns and presents estimations of Markov switching multifractal models [as MSM] to give new insights about short and long run dependencies in stock returns. The main advantage of the model is to allow for the derivation of several indicators of comovements on heterogenous lasting horizons. Empirical applications are performed for four stock indices (CAC DAX FTSE NYSE) at daily frequency between 1996 and 2008.

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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 218.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:218
Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
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  1. Thomas Lux, 2006. "The Markov-Switching Multifractal Model of Asset Returns: GMM Estimation and Linear Forecasting of Volatility," Working Papers wp06-19, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  2. Laurent E. Calvet, 2004. "How to Forecast Long-Run Volatility: Regime Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 49-83.
  3. Laurent-Emmanuel Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2001. "Forecasting multifractal volatility," Post-Print hal-00477952, HAL.
  4. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Shoesmith, Gary L. & Wood, Robert A., 1995. "Cointegration, Error Correction, and Price Discovery on Informationally Linked Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 563-579, December.
  5. Angelos Kanas, . "Linkages between the US and European Equity Markets: Further Evidence from cointegration Tests," Working Papers 9804, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  6. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  7. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
  8. Jerome Fillol, 2005. "Modelisation multifractale du taux de change dollar/euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 104, pages 135-150.
  9. Laurent-Emmanuel Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher & Samuel B. Thompson, 2006. "Volatility Comovement: a multifrequency approach," Post-Print hal-00459667, HAL.
  10. Lux, Thomas & Kaizoji, Taisei, 2006. "Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: Long memory, fractality and regime switching," Economics Working Papers 2006,13, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
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  12. Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 574, Econometric Society.
  13. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," NBER Working Papers 9839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Serra, Ana Paula, 2000. "Country and industry factors in returns: evidence from emerging markets' stocks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 127-151, September.
  15. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-62, July.
  16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2003:i:31:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Jérôme Fillol, 2003. "Multifractality: Theory and Evidence an Application to the French Stock Market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(31), pages 1-12.
  18. Kallberg, Jarl & Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "Time-series and cross-sectional excess comovement in stock indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 481-502, June.
  19. Zumbach, Gilles & Lynch, Paul, 2001. "Heterogeneous volatility cascade in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 298(3), pages 521-529.
  20. Idier, J., 2006. "Stock exchanges industry consolidation and shock transmission," Working papers 159, Banque de France.
  21. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  22. Roll, Richard, 1992. " Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 3-41, March.
  23. Laurent-Emmanuel Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2002. "Multifractality in Asset Returns: Theory and Evidence," Post-Print hal-00478175, HAL.
  24. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2001. "Long and short term dynamic causal transmission amongst international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 563-587, August.
  25. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  26. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
  27. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  28. Kearney, Colm & Poti, Valerio, 2006. "Correlation dynamics in European equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 305-321, September.
  29. Benoit Mandelbrot & Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet, 1997. "A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1164, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  30. Gilles Zumbach & Paul Lynch, 2001. "Heterogeneous volatility cascade in financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0105162,
  31. K. Rouwenhorst, 1998. "Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm97, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
  32. Philippe Martin & Helene Rey, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or without Crash?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00176903, HAL.
  33. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
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