U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market; Forecasting and Structural Change
This report analyzes recent structural changes in the world cotton industry and develops a statistical model that reflects current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes in 2008 authorized USDA to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in nearly 80 years. Systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. A structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices, along with China’s trade and production policy. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton supply, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio (S/U), China’s net imports as a share of world consumption, the foreign supply of cotton, and selected farm policy parameters.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1400 Independence Ave.,SW, Mail Stop 1800, Washington, DC 20250-1800|
Web page: http://www.ers.usda.gov/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan L. Olmstead & Paul W. Rhode, 2003.
"Hog Round Marketing, Seed Quality, and Government Policy: Institutional Change in U.S. Cotton Production, 1920-1960,"
NBER Working Papers
9612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olmstead, Alan L. & Rhode, Paul W., 2003. "Hog-Round Marketing, Seed Quality, and Government Policy: Institutional Change in U.S. Cotton Production, 1920 1960," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(02), pages 447-488, June.
- Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2008. "Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 391-406.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995.
"Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
297., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
- Diron, Marie, 2006.
"Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data,"
Working Paper Series
0622, European Central Bank.
- Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Schnepf, Randall D. & Dohlman, Erik, 2001.
"Modeling Soybean Prices in a Changing Policy Environment,"
2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri
18946, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Barry Goodwin & Randy Schnepf & Erik Dohlman, 2005. "Modelling soybean prices in a changing policy environment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 253-263.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:55950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.