U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change
The purpose of this study was to analyze structural changes that took place in the cotton industry in recent years and develop a statistical model that reflects the current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes authorized the U.S. Department of Agriculture to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in 79 years. In addition, systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. This study concluded that a structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and that world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices. China’s trade and production policy also continues to be an important factor in price determination. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton supply, changes in U.S. stocks-to-use ratio (S/U), changes in China’s net imports as a share of world consumption, selected farm policy parameters, and changes in the foreign supply of cotton.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Schnepf, Randall D. & Dohlman, Erik, 2001.
"Modeling Soybean Prices in a Changing Policy Environment,"
2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri
18946, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Barry Goodwin & Randy Schnepf & Erik Dohlman, 2005. "Modelling soybean prices in a changing policy environment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 253-263.
- Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2008. "Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 391-406.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997.
"Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's examples of Andrews-Ploberger test," Statistical Software Components RTZ00087, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Alan L. Olmstead & Paul W. Rhode, 2003.
"Hog Round Marketing, Seed Quality, and Government Policy: Institutional Change in U.S. Cotton Production, 1920-1960,"
NBER Working Papers
9612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olmstead, Alan L. & Rhode, Paul W., 2003. "Hog-Round Marketing, Seed Quality, and Government Policy: Institutional Change in U.S. Cotton Production, 1920 1960," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(02), pages 447-488, June.
- Diron, Marie, 2006.
"Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data,"
Working Paper Series
0622, European Central Bank.
- Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.