U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change
The purpose of this study was to analyze structural changes that took place in the cotton industry in recent years and develop a statistical model that reflects the current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes authorized the U.S. Department of Agriculture to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in 79 years. In addition, systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. This study concluded that a structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and that world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices. China’s trade and production policy also continues to be an important factor in price determination. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton supply, changes in U.S. stocks-to-use ratio (S/U), changes in China’s net imports as a share of world consumption, selected farm policy parameters, and changes in the foreign supply of cotton.
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- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997.
"Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
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- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
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- Olmstead, Alan L. & Rhode, Paul W., 2003. "Hog-Round Marketing, Seed Quality, and Government Policy: Institutional Change in U.S. Cotton Production, 1920 1960," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(02), pages 447-488, June.
- Alan L. Olmstead & Paul W. Rhode, 2003. "Hog Round Marketing, Seed Quality, and Government Policy: Institutional Change in U.S. Cotton Production, 1920-1960," NBER Working Papers 9612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank.
- Barry Goodwin & Randy Schnepf & Erik Dohlman, 2005. "Modelling soybean prices in a changing policy environment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 253-263.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Schnepf, Randall D. & Dohlman, Erik, 2001. "Modeling Soybean Prices in a Changing Policy Environment," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18946, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2008. "Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 391-406. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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