Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime
This article studies the integration of China's cotton market with the international market, especially the U.S. market. Investigating the futures prices from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the U.S. and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in China with several time series models, we find that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between these two series. The two markets share price transmissions, and based on results from an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, we find their price volatilities are similar. We argue that China's recent exchange rate reform and its gradual liberalization in bilateral cotton trade since it joined World Trade Organization have had important impacts on these futures markets. Based on these findings, several important economic and policy implications are derived. Copyright (c) 2010 International Association of Agricultural Economists.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 41 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0169-5150|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0169-5150|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mohamadou Fadiga & Samarendu Mohanty & Mark Welch & Suwen Pan, 2008. "Doha development agenda: implications for the US and world cotton markets," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 135-153.
- Miljkovic, Dragan, 2006.
"U.S. and Canadian Livestock Prices: Market Integration and Trade Dependence,"
2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA
21396, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Dragan Miljkovic, 2009. "US and Canadian livestock prices: market integration and trade dependence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 183-193.
- Miljkovic, Dragan, 2006. "U.S. and Canadian Livestock Prices: Market Integration and Trade Dependence," 2006 Conference, April 17-18, 2006, St. Louis, Missouri 18996, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Andreas Röthig & Carl Chiarella, 2006.
"Investigating Nonlinear Speculation in Cattle, Corn and Hog Futures Markets Using Logistic Smooth Transition Regression Models,"
Research Paper Series
172, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Andreas Röthig & Carl Chiarella, 2007. "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 719-737, 08.
- Röthig, Andreas & Chiarella, Carl, 2006. "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 167, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
- Linda Warell, 2006. "Market Integration in the International Coal Industry: A Cointegration Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 99-118.
- Sapir, Andre & Trachtman, Joel P., 2008.
"Subsidization, price suppression, and expertise: causation and precision in Upland Cotton,"
World Trade Review,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 183-209, January.
- André Sapir & Joel Trachtman, 2008. "Subsidization, price suppression, and expertise: causation and precision in upland cotton," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8092, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Mesbah Motamed & Kenneth A. Foster & Wallace E. Tyner, 2008. "Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 29-39, 07.
- Jian Yang & Jin Zhang & David J. Leatham, 2003. "Price and Volatility Transmission in International Wheat Futures," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 37-50, May.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2004. "Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Exports, Human Capital and Real Income in China," The International Journal of Applied Economics, Department of General Business, Southeastern Louisiana University, vol. 1(1), pages 24-45, September.
- Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen, 2009.
"U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change,"
2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
49324, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen, 2009. "U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market; Forecasting and Structural Change," Economic Research Report 55950, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
- Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu, 2005. "Price relations among hog, corn, and soybean meal futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 491-514, 05.
- Pan, Suwen & Welch, Mark & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Ethridge, Don E., 2005. "Assessing the Impacts of the Chinese TRQ System and U.S. Subsidies on the World Cotton Market," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 6(2).
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
- G. Geoffrey Booth & Cetin Ciner, 2001. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 311-313.
- Paul L. Fackler & Hüseyin Tastan, 2008. "Estimating the Degree of Market Integration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(1), pages 69-85.
- Dwi Susanto & C. Parr Rosson & Flynn J Adcock, 2008. "Market integration and convergence to the law of one price in the North American onion markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 177-191.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Hun Y. Park & Anil K. Bera, 1987. "Interest-Rate Volatility, Basis Risk and Heteroscedasticity in Hedging Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 79-97.
- A. G. Malliaris & Jorge L. Urrutia, 1996. "Linkages between agricultural commodity futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 595-609, 08.
- H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005.
"Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, 06.
- Wang, H. Holly & Ke, Bingfan, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), June.
- Du, Wen & Wang, H. Holly, 2004. "Price behavior in China's wheat futures market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 215-229.
- G. Geoffrey Booth & Paul Brockman & Yiuman Tse, 1998. "The relationship between US and Canadian wheat futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 73-80.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:41:y:2010:i:5:p:443-451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.