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Short-term Farm Level Adaptations of EU15 Agricultural Supply to Climate Change

  • Leclere, David
  • Jayet, Pierre-Alain
  • de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie
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    Assessing climate change impact on agriculture is a complex task involving a wide range of economical and physical processes, leading to significant uncertainties. At European scale, climate change impacts on agricultural supply have been appraised to be of relatively less important driver by the end of century compared to other global drivers. However these diagnoses are incomplete due to a limited representation of both spatial heterogeneity in important determinants of agricultural supply (soil, management practices and producer typology) and fine scale processes such as farm scale autonomous adaptation. We propose a complementary approach based on a modeling framework including a spatially explicit representation of productivity and producer behavior with regard to heterogeneity in soil, climate, and producer socio-economic context to appraise climate change impacts including autonomous farm-scale adaptations of EU15 agricultural supply to climate change. Our results suggest that without accounting for autonomous adaptation European agricultural supply may have interesting resilience properties at an aggregated scale despite significant heterogeneity at smaller resolution. Accounting for autonomous adaptations result in significant yield gains, and may lead to (i) a significant increase in the relative profitability of crops compared to other land-covers, thus possibly increasing its agricultural land-use share over other land covers, and (ii) an increase in total European production which may have impacts on agricultural goods markets, thus highlighting the need for integrating fine scale processes such as autonomous adaptation.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114391
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    Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland with number 114391.

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    Date of creation: 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114391
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    1. Belhouchette, Hatem & Louhichi, Kamel & Therond, Olivier & Mouratiadou, Ioanna & Wery, Jacques & Ittersum, Martin van & Flichman, Guillermo, 2011. "Assessing the impact of the Nitrate Directive on farming systems using a bio-economic modelling chain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 135-145, February.
    2. Stéphane Cara & Martin Houzé & Pierre-Alain Jayet, 2005. "Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agriculture in the EU: A Spatial Assessment of Sources and Abatement Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(4), pages 551-583, December.
    3. De Cara & Jayet, 2000. "Emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture : the heterogeneity of abatement costs in France," Working Papers 156214, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
    4. Edwin van der Werf & Sonja Peterson, 2009. "Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: an overview," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(5), pages 507-517, 09.
    5. Francesco Bosello & Jian Zhang, 2005. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture," Working Papers 2005.94, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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