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China's Grain Demand and Supply: Trade Implications

Author

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  • Harry X Wu
  • Christopher Findlay

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

This study reviews research on China's grain demand and supply. The purpose is to comment on the outlook for China's trade in grain and grain-based food, but also to identify the sensitivities of the projections of China's grain demand to key parameters. The paper will therefore 1) review a set of projections of grain demand and trade, 2) examine studies of major factors considered to affect grain demand in China, 3) comment on some trade and production policy issues based on a new projection that takes into account the effect of changes in population structure. A simple supply side assumption is used in this study. Findlay (1996) contains more discussion of supply side issues. Work reported here on the demand side is largely based on the study by Wu and Wu (1994) using official urban household survey data as well as recent results obtained using CERC-MoA rural household survey data (Wu, 1997). Our particular interest in this paper is the sensitivity of the outlooks for consumption and therefore trade to changes in

Suggested Citation

  • Harry X Wu & Christopher Findlay, 1997. "China's Grain Demand and Supply: Trade Implications," Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers 1997-04, University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:adl:cercwp:1997-04
    as

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    File URL: https://media.adelaide.edu.au/economics/papers/cerc/cercwp1997-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-26.
    2. Garnaut,Ross Gregory & Shutian,Guo & Guonan,Ma (ed.), 1996. "The Third Revolution in the Chinese Countryside," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521554091.
    3. Christopher Findlay, 1997. "Grain Sector Reform in China," Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers 1997-01, University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre.
    4. Anderson, Kym & Peng, Chao Yang, 1998. "Feeding and fueling China in the 21st century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1413-1429, August.
    5. Cheng Enjiang & Christopher Findlay, 1995. "Trade Reforms and Integration of ChinaÂ’s Domestic and International Grain Markets since the middle 1980s - the Case of Wheat and Maize," Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers 1995-07, University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Hengyun & Rae, Allan N. & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2004. "Chinese animal product consumption in the 1990s," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(4), pages 1-22.
    2. Hubacek, Klaus & Sun, Laixiang, 2001. "A scenario analysis of China's land use and land cover change: incorporating biophysical information into input-output modeling," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 367-397, December.
    3. Christopher Findlay, 1997. "Grain Sector Reform in China," Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers 1997-01, University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre.
    4. Chang, Min & Sumner, Daniel A., 2004. "Trade Impact On Food Security: Analysis On Farm Households In Rural China," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20322, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Unknown, 1998. "Grain Market Reform in China: Global Implications," Technical Reports 113816, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.
    6. K. Hubacek & L. Sun, 1999. "Land Use Change in China: A Scenario Analysis Based on Input- Output Modeling," Working Papers ir99073, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

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