IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wop/iasawp/ir99073.html

Land Use Change in China: A Scenario Analysis Based on Input- Output Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • K. Hubacek
  • L. Sun

Abstract

Land availability is of crucial importance for china's food security and economic development in the next century. Economic growth, urbanization, diet structure changes, and population growth will influence both the demand of and the supply for land. A recursive input-output model enlarged by land is used to develop various scenarios of changes in the economy and society and to evaluate their effects on land-use change in China. Due to inefficiency and structural problems, China's land productivity has ample room to increase significantly above current levels even by further exploiting the potential of the existing technology. Results of some scenarios show that China would not be able to support the increasing demand for land intensive products with its land base without significant improvement in land productivity and/or by increasing import.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Hubacek & L. Sun, 1999. "Land Use Change in China: A Scenario Analysis Based on Input- Output Modeling," Working Papers ir99073, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-073.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-073.ps
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duchin, Faye & Lange, Glenn-Marie, 1995. "The choice of technology and associated changes in prices in the U.S. economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 335-357, August.
    2. Liu, Xuelin, 1998. "Adjusted forest accounts for China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 283-298, December.
    3. L. Sun & X. Li, 1997. "Driving Forces of Arable Land Conversion in China," Working Papers ir97076, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    4. Ayres, Robert U & Kneese, Allen V, 1969. "Production , Consumption, and Externalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 282-297, June.
    5. Harry X Wu & Christopher Findlay, 1997. "China's Grain Demand and Supply: Trade Implications," Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers 1997-04, University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre.
    6. Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle, 1995. "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(4), pages 853-864.
    7. Yiping Huang & K.P. Kalirajan, 1997. "Potential of China's grain production: evidence from the household data," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(2-3), pages 191-199, December.
    8. Cao, Mingkui & Ma, Shijun & Han, Chunru, 1995. "Potential productivity and human carrying capacity of an agro-ecosystem: An analysis of food production potential of China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 387-414.
    9. Y. Chen & G. Fischer, 1998. "A New Digital Georeferenced Database of Grassland in China," Working Papers ir98062, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    10. Herman E. Daly, 1968. "On Economics as a Life Science," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 392-392.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dabo Guan & Terry Barker, 2012. "Low-carbon development in the least developed region: a case study of Guangyuan, Sichuan province, southwest China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 243-254, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hubacek, Klaus & Sun, Laixiang, 2001. "A scenario analysis of China's land use and land cover change: incorporating biophysical information into input-output modeling," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 367-397, December.
    2. Christopher Findlay, 1997. "Grain Sector Reform in China," Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers 1997-01, University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre.
    3. Toman, Michael & Lile, Ronald D. & King, Dennis M., 1998. "Assessing Sustainability: Some Conceptual and Empirical Challenges," Discussion Papers 10756, Resources for the Future.
    4. Stern, David I., 1997. "Limits to substitution and irreversibility in production and consumption: A neoclassical interpretation of ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 197-215, June.
    5. A. Brismar, 1999. "Environmental Challenges and Impacts of Land-Use Conversion in the Yellow River Basin," Working Papers ir99016, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    6. Yelena Ryumina, 2016. "Ecological Aspects of the Assessment of Quality of Life," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1113-1122.
    7. Helfand, Gloria E. & Berck, Peter & Maull, Tim, 2003. "The theory of pollution policy," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 249-303, Elsevier.
    8. Levallois, Clément, 2010. "Can de-growth be considered a policy option? A historical note on Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen and the Club of Rome," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 2271-2278, September.
    9. Hoekstra, Rutger & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2006. "Constructing physical input-output tables for environmental modeling and accounting: Framework and illustrations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 375-393, September.
    10. Zhao Ding Tao & Guo Tao & Hong Jin & Xu Yi & Fan Jin, 2014. "Trends and Spatial Distribution of Embedded Carbon Footprints in China," Energy & Environment, , vol. 25(5), pages 915-930, July.
    11. Carvalho, Ariovaldo Lopes de & Antunes, Carlos Henggeler & Freire, Fausto & Henriques, Carla Oliveira, 2015. "A hybrid input–output multi-objective model to assess economic–energy–environment trade-offs in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 769-785.
    12. Lenzen, Manfred, 2007. "Structural path analysis of ecosystem networks," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 334-342.
    13. Hanspeter Wieland & Manfred Lenzen & Arne Geschke & Jacob Fry & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Nina Eisenmenger & Johannes Schenk & Stefan Giljum, 2022. "The PIOLab: Building global physical input–output tables in a virtual laboratory," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 683-703, June.
    14. Xiaobo Zhang & Timothy Mount & Richard Boisvert, 2004. "Industrialization, urbanization and land use in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 207-224.
    15. Linlin Xiao & Xiaohuan Yang & Hongyan Cai & Dingxiang Zhang, 2015. "Cultivated Land Changes and Agricultural Potential Productivity in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-16, August.
    16. Hubacek, Klaus & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2006. "Changing concepts of 'land' in economic theory: From single to multi-disciplinary approaches," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 5-27, January.
    17. Fisher, Anthony C & Peterson, Frederick M, 1976. "The Environment in Economics: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-33, March.
    18. Ryumina, Ye. V., 2016. "Quality of Life Assessment: Environmental Aspects," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 2(4), pages 432-440.
    19. Guarino, Raffaele & Muñoz-Ulecia, Enrique, 2026. "Howard T. Odum’s contribution to Marxian ecological thought," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 511(C).
    20. Patterson, Murray & McDonald, Garry & Hardy, Derrylea, 2017. "Is there more in common than we think? Convergence of ecological footprinting, emergy analysis, life cycle assessment and other methods of environmental accounting," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 362(C), pages 19-36.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiasaat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.