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Land Use Change in China: A Scenario Analysis Based on Input- Output Modeling

  • K. Hubacek
  • L. Sun

Land availability is of crucial importance for china's food security and economic development in the next century. Economic growth, urbanization, diet structure changes, and population growth will influence both the demand of and the supply for land. A recursive input-output model enlarged by land is used to develop various scenarios of changes in the economy and society and to evaluate their effects on land-use change in China. Due to inefficiency and structural problems, China's land productivity has ample room to increase significantly above current levels even by further exploiting the potential of the existing technology. Results of some scenarios show that China would not be able to support the increasing demand for land intensive products with its land base without significant improvement in land productivity and/or by increasing import.

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Paper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir99073.

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Date of creation: Dec 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99073
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  1. Huang, Yiping & Kalirajan, K.P., 1997. "Potential of China's grain production: evidence from the household data," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(2-3), December.
  2. Y. Chen & G. Fischer, 1998. "A New Digital Georeferenced Database of Grassland in China," Working Papers ir98062, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  3. Liu, Xuelin, 1998. "Adjusted forest accounts for China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 283-298, December.
  4. Duchin, Faye & Lange, Glenn-Marie, 1995. "The choice of technology and associated changes in prices in the U.S. economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 335-357, August.
  5. Cao, Mingkui & Ma, Shijun & Han, Chunru, 1995. "Potential productivity and human carrying capacity of an agro-ecosystem: An analysis of food production potential of China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 387-414.
  6. Ayres, Robert U & Kneese, Allen V, 1969. "Production , Consumption, and Externalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 282-97, June.
  7. L. Sun & X. Li, 1997. "Driving Forces of Arable Land Conversion in China," Working Papers ir97076, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
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