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Endbericht zum Forschungsauftrag fe 13/08: "Ursachenanalyse der Verschiebung in der funktionalen Einkommensverteilung in Deutschland" (Aktenzeichen I A 3 - Vw 3170/08/10035)

Listed author(s):
  • Aretz, Bodo
  • Busl, Claudia
  • Gürtzgen, Nicole
  • Hogrefe, Jan
  • Kappler, Marcus
  • Steffes, Susanne
  • Westerheide, Peter

Seit Mitte der 1980er Jahre, besonders jedoch seit der Jahrtausendwende, ist in Deutschland ein stetiger Rückgang der Arbeitseinkommensquote (AEQ) zu beobachten. Der vorliegende Forschungsbericht analysiert die dieser Dynamik zugrunde liegenden Ursachen und charakterisiert sie in ihrer jeweiligen Bedeutung. Der Bericht hat dabei folgende Ziele: Eine einheitliche und transparente Definition der AEQ zu liefern. Die Dynamik der AEQ detailliert zu betrachten und die wichtigsten Einflussfaktoren auf die AEQ zu identifizieren. Den Verlauf der AEQ in Deutschland anderen OECD Staaten gegenüberzustellen. Die Bedeutung von Kapitaleinkommen für verschiedene Haushaltsgruppen zu analysieren. Hinweise zur Interpretation der AEQ als ein Maß der makroökonomischen Verteilungsgerechtigkeit zu geben. Zum Erreichen der genannten Ziele werden aktuelle wissenschaftliche Methoden angewendet. Dabei wurden Daten auf verschiedenen Aggregationsebenen ausgewertet, wie auch auf bereits vorhandene Literatur Bezug genommen. Im Rahmen von Hypothesentests wurden eigene ökonometrische Verfahren herangezogen und bestimmte Charakteristika der AEQ technisch überprüft. Der Bericht gliedert sich in vier Kapitel, welche als Ganzes einen ausführlichen Überblick über die aktuellen Erkenntnisse der Forschung zur Entwicklung der AEQ bieten. Dennoch lassen sich die einzelnen Kapitel auch separat zur detaillierten Lektüre verwenden. Der erste Teil beschreibt und definiert die AEQ. Er dokumentiert wesentliche Trends und zeigt einige wichtige Einflussfaktoren deskriptiv-analytisch auf. Der zweite Teil geht genauer auf die Determinanten der Arbeitseinkommen ein. Damit leistet er einen Beitrag zur detaillierten Fundierung der in diesem Bericht und in der Forschungsliteratur getesteten Hypothesen. Neben der Rolle der Institutionen am Arbeitsmarkt werden insbesondere auch nachfrageseitige Bestimmungsgründe, wie der Globalisierungsprozess diskutiert. Viele Hypothesen bezüglich der Dynamik der AEQ basieren auf Analysen der Arbeitseinkommensseite, weshalb diese hier nachgezeichnet werden sollen. Im dritten Teil werden die Hypothesen des ersten und zweiten Teils ökonometrisch getestet. Zuerst wird die Schätzgleichung theoretisch hergeleitet. Anschließend wird die Dynamik der AEQ auf stochastische Trends hin untersucht, um die Validität der verwendeten Hypothesentests zu gewährleisten. Panelschätzungen klären dann die Richtigkeit der Hypothesen über mögliche Einflussfaktoren auf die AEQ. Der vierte und abschließende Teil geht der Frage nach, inwieweit sich die sinkende AEQ in einer geänderten haushaltsbezogenen Verteilung niederschlägt, indem er untersucht, ob die stagnierenden Einkommen aus Arbeitsentgelten durch gesteigerte Kapitaleinkommen verschiedener Art ausgeglichen werden. Hierzu wird auf Haushaltsdaten verschiedener Quellen zurückgegriffen. Ein abschließendes Fazit greift die an dieser Stelle aufgestellten Ziele auf und schließt den vorliegenden Bericht ab.

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This book is provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Expertises with number 110510 and published in 2009.
Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewexp:110510
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